We are about to face a new crisis in Washington,—the federal government may shut down in mid-March because it isn’t legally authorized to spend beyond that date. Only prompt action by President Trump and Congress can prevent the shutdown. But the shutdown may happen because of battles between Trump and the Democrats over spending, and fights among the Republicans themselves.
We Could Have A Government Shutdown In March
First, the problem. Spending for the federal government in our current fiscal year is only legally authorized until March 14. Congress failed to pass regular annual spending appropriations and instead resorting to a short-term “continuing resolution” (a “CR”, in Washington-speak). A CR just maintains overall spending levels and is used when the regular appropriations process deadlocks.
Keep the looming shutdown separate in your mind from two other budget crises—the debt limit blocking new federal borrowing that runs out in early summer, and the drastic budget plans proposed by Republicans and Trump for the new fiscal year starting on October 1.
Raising the debt limit is necessary for two reasons. We don’t take in enough revenue to pay for current spending already enacted. And more borrowing will be needed to finance the Republicans’ new budget plans that include budget-busting regressive tax cuts.
The debt limit deadline—and the likely political meltdown it will cause– probably won’t hit until this summer. But we’ve got a crisis looming right now, because the government isn’t authorized to spend money after March 14, and the regular budget process has broken down.
Breakdown Of Regular Budget Process Causes Shutdowns
You learned in civics class that Congress has a regular budget process—the President submits a proposed budget and committees in the House and Senate each review it. Twelve specific appropriations subcommittees in each chamber (Defense, Agriculture, Energy, and so on) pass a budget, the House and Senate resolve their differences and pass the 12 bills, which then must be approved by the President before the new fiscal year starts.
That nice story you heard in civics class? It isn’t real. The regular budget process hasn’t fully worked since 1996—29 years ago. And it has only been fully carried out four times in the last 48 years.
Instead, Washington authorizes spending through other means—often CRs, although sometimes larger omnibus spending bills.
Political Battles Make Government Shutdown More Likely
Recent CRs have been bipartisan, relying on significant support from Democrats, largely because a hard-core group of Republicans refuse to vote for CRs without massive spending cuts that are unacceptable to Democrats (and some Republicans). So Democratic votes have been needed to pass a CR, even when Republicans control both houses of Congress.
Republican opposition to CRs is substantial. 38 Republicans in the House and 11 in the Senate voted against the last CR in December 2024, with no Democratic votes in opposition.
But since the Republicans now control Congress and the presidency, why don’t they just pass a new CR with their majority control?
Two problems confront them. First, some conservative Republican House members vehemently oppose authorizing future spending without massive spending cuts. Some proudly brag they’ve never voted for a CR, because there weren’t deep enough spending cuts.
But the House will need all of its 218 Republicans to support a CR. Counting existing vacancies, the House currently needs 217 votes for a majority to pass a bill. If more than one conservative Republican balks at the CR, and Democrats unanimously oppose it, then it won’t pass, and the government will shut down.
The situation is even tighter because some moderate House Republicans fear cutting popular programs could cost them their seats (and the Republican House majority.) Representative Rob Bresnahan (R-PA),who defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2024 by 6252 votes, recently warned “if a bill is put in front of me that guts the benefits my neighbors rely on, I will not vote for it.”
In the past, Democrats reached a compromise with Republicans, and a spending bill was passed without votes from the hard-core conservatives. But Democrats are now fighting against Trump’s dramatic actions to withhold spending and interfere with legally approved government operations and are much less likely to support a Republican-designed CR.
So there likely are no Democratic votes for a Republican CR with deep spending cuts. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told his House member they should refuse to support any CR unless President Trump’s spending freeze is “choked off.”
But because Trump is currently not spending money already authorized by Congress, there is virtually no trust among Democrats that any deal they make on a CR will be honored. Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) says “I cannot support efforts that will continue this lawlessness that we’re seeing when it comes to this administration’s actions.”
And even if the House passes a CR, it can be filibustered in the Senate. Regular Senate procedure requires 60 votes to end a filibuster. So a determined group of 41 or more Senators can block a purely Republican, uncompromising CR. And there currently are 47 Democratic Senators.
Can A Government Shutdown Be Averted?
Blocking an uncompromising Republican CR means Democrats will have to debate over blame for the shutdown. They will be attacked by a confrontational President Trump, who is no stranger to government shutdowns.
In his first term, Trump presided over the longest shutdown in American history—34 days—to try and get funding for border walls with Mexico. Trump eventually gave in because of the negative shutdown effects—airline delays, closed national parks, no new small business loans, delayed tax refunds, and a volatile stock market and slowing economy. (The Congressional Budget Office estimated the shutdown permanently lost $3 billion in GDP.)
Considering Trump’s aggressive style, and the already fierce divisions in Washington over Trump’s hostile attacks on essential government operations and services, it’s hard to see an easy compromise that keeps the government open.
If Democrats stay united, and Trump and the Republicans won’t compromise with them, a shutdown is very likely. This will harm people who rely on government services and damage the economy. And given the aggressive government disruption being done by Trump (and Elon Musk), the shutdown is one of the only leverage points Democrats currently have to push back.
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