IRS data from the second week of the tax filing season—the week ending February 7, 2025—suggests a result similar to last week: taxpayers aren’t rushing to file.
Early filing data reflects a nearly 8% downturn in tax returns received compared to the prior year. That’s on top of a 14% dip last week.
The IRS still appears unmoved, claiming on its website that “[h]istorically, filing season numbers even out as more tax returns come in” and noting that “the IRS expects the tax return filing numbers will level out in future weeks as the April filing deadline approaches.”
As I noted last week, I’m not entirely convinced that the slowdown is just a seasonal tick. Why? The IRS is currently without a permanent Commissioner (and the acting Commissioner has not posted a message to taxpayers). A Trump Administration hiring freeze at the tax agency has begun, with existing job offers being rescinded. And, after President Trump suggested he might fire some current IRS workers or move those authorized to carry guns to the border for immigration enforcement, the Department of Homeland Security sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to deputize IRS agents to help with efforts to crack down on immigration.
In addition, taxpayers have voiced concerns about their financial data, including Social Security numbers after reports suggested that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had been given access to sensitive financial data in the Treasury Department. (This week, Justice Department lawyers agreed to a proposed order that would temporarily curb that access, a move that follows a lawsuit and protests challenging DOGE’s actions.)
Whatever the reason, the early numbers in 2025 remain sluggish. The IRS has received 25,553,000 individual income tax returns in 2024, compared with 23,589,000 in 2025. That’s, as noted, a drop of about 8%—and keep in mind that is a drop from early 2024, when taxpayers were waiting to see what Congress would do about those potentially retroactive tax benefits (it never happened). The drop is more significant if you compare the 2025 filing season with the 2023 filing season (18%).
(About 60% of those returns were self-prepared, which is not unusual to see early in the tax season.)
The data shows that the IRS has processed 23,515,000 individual income tax returns as of February 7, 2025, compared to 25,443,000 by February 9, 2024. That’s a decrease of 7.6%.
Web visits to IRS.gov were also sharply down, dropping an incredible 40.9% compared to 2024. There have been 93,763,000 visits to the website as of February 7, 2025, compared to 158,617,000 visits by February 9, 2024.
The downturn in web visits may reflect the fact that the website has not been regularly updated—there have been only five press releases posted since the season opened, and only one update since last week.
As last week, the average tax refund is up. The IRS has issued 8,054,000 tax refunds so far in 2025 compared to 7,483,000 in 2024, a boost of 7.6%. The average tax refund is also up: $2,065 per taxpayer as of February 7, 2025, compared to $1,741 as of February 9, 2024, an increase of 18.6%. The average refund issued by direct deposit is even higher in 2025: $2,165 (as compared to $1,831 in 2024).
We continue to expect tax refund numbers to change in the next few weeks. The law requires the IRS to hold refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the ACTC until mid-February. The rule applies to the entire refund, even the portion not associated with the EITC and ACTC. That means if you qualify for the refundable credit, you’ll have to wait until the IRS can release it—those checks should begin to go out next week. As a result, if you’re an early EITC/ACTC filer, you should begin to see tax refunds by March 3—some taxpayers could see their refunds a few days earlier. That estimate is based on processing times, allowing for Presidents’ Day, which is a federal and bank holiday.
Once those EITC/ACTC returns are eligible to be processed, we should see an uptick in a number of categories, including refunds issued and average refund amounts.
It continues to be an unpredictable season. Check back as the season progresses as Forbes continues to track those IRS numbers.
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