According to a new Tax Policy Center analysis, the House Republicans’ March 9 draft of a major 2025 revenue bill would cut taxes on average by about $2,800 in 2026, compared to what households would pay if the individual and some business provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire or become less generous as scheduled at the end of this year.
TPC analyzed a preliminary, incomplete draft of the tax portion of what will become the year’s major budget bill. It found that, on average, all income groups would benefit from the tax proposals. However, more than two-thirds of the plan’s tax cuts would go to those making about $217,000 or more, the highest-income 20 percent of households. The top one percent, those making more than $1.1 million, would get nearly one-quarter of the tax cuts.
The lowest-income households would see an average tax cut of about $120, or 0.6 percent of their after-tax income. Middle income households would see their taxes fall by about 1.7 percent of after-tax income, or about $1,300 on average. In contrast, the top 1 percent would get an average tax cut of more than $100,000, or nearly 5 percent of their after-tax income.
Winners And Losers
TPC estimated that about one-third of low-income households would get a tax cut in 2026. By contrast, nearly 90 percent of middle-income households and more than 98 percent of the top one percent of households would get a tax cut, according to the plan. At the same time, about 6 percent of households would see their taxes rise, including 10 percent of those with incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.
The draft measure released last Friday would make permanent trillions of dollars of individual tax cuts that were enacted in the 2017 TCJA but are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. It also would add some new tax breaks.
However, the plan does not address several costly tax cuts proposed by President Trump in his 2024 campaign, including tax-free tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits. Nor does it resolve the long-running dispute over what to do with the current $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, which is due to expire at the end of this year.
The Ways and Means panel plans to consider a more complete version of a 2025 tax bill on Tuesday and could include some additional pieces at that time. Later, House leaders will add the tax provisions to a still-to-be-approved package of spending changes and attempt to pass a complete budget for fiscal year 2026. The Senate will consider its own version of a tax bill later this year.
What’s In The Bill
As the revenue bill stands today, it would cut taxes by about $5 trillion over the next decade. Besides extending individual provisions of the TCJA, it would add several other tax breaks. Starting in 2025, the measure would temporarily increase the standard deduction by $1,000 for single filers and $2,000 for married couples and raise the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child. The plan also would temporarily boost the inflation adjustment for the tax brackets, except for the top bracket, starting in 2026.
It would increase the estate tax exemption to $15 million, adjust it for inflation and permanently extend the provision. It also would increase, modify, and permanently extend the special Section 199A deduction for pass-through business such as partnerships and sole proprietorships.
In addition, the current draft extends and adjusts several tax changes for multinational corporations that were included in the TCJA.
Highlighting Challenges
The weekend draft highlights the challenges faced by Trump and the congressional GOP. The plan would cost much more than the $4 trillion lawmakers had targeted and it leaves out multiple additional tax cuts that, one way or another, are likely to find their way into a final bill.
And, as TPC’s analysis shows, while every income group would get a tax cut, the highest-income households would fare vastly better than low- and middle-income tax filers. And that may complicate the party’s efforts to present a more populist image.
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