A version of this article originally appeared in Tax Notes Federal on June 30, 2025.
The GOP budget bill is not very popular. In fact, it may be the most unpopular piece of major legislation since President Trump’s 2017 tax cut.
In a slew of recent polls, opponents of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) outpaced supporters by nearly 2 to 1. Partisan differences were sharp, with most Democrats opposed and most Republicans in favor. But these majorities were asymmetric: Democrats oppose the OBBBA by significantly larger margins than Republicans support it.
As always, things get more complicated once we look a bit deeper at the survey data. Certain OBBBA provisions poll better than others, with extension of the 2017 tax cuts a relative bright spot. But even the bill’s tax provisions face headwinds. While a large majority favors renewal of most tax cuts, a smaller majority opposes an extension for the nation’s richest taxpayers.
A Quick Look Back at 2017
Before venturing into recent poll data, it’s worth revisiting 2017. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was not especially well loved when it was enacted at the end of that year. In early 2018, a Real Clear Politics average of polls conducted before and after passage found that 40.9% of Americans supported the law, while 45.8% opposed it. Not exactly a disaster for Republicans, but not great for a law that gave most people a tax cut.
If anything emerges from the 2018 data, it seems to be unhappiness about the distribution of the tax cuts. In March 2018 a poll sponsored by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research asked people who they thought would benefit from the TCJA. Corporations topped the list, with 77% saying big business was the big winner. Wealthy individuals placed second at 73%. Middle- and lower-income individuals trailed at 42% and 39%, respectively. Just 36% said they expected to see much benefit personally.
Critics of the TCJA have frequently pointed out that some of Trump’s lowest first-term approval ratings came during the final days leading up to its passage in December 2017. That’s true, but there are too many confounds to draw a clear link.
What does seem likely, however, is that public opinion trended down in the months and years after Trump signed the TCJA into law. An April 2019 poll by Monmouth University, for instance, found that just 34% of Americans approved of the law, while 43% disapproved. A year earlier, the split had been closer, with 41% in favor and 42% against.
Also notable in the Monmouth poll, 28% of Americans said that the TCJA had actually raised their tax bill. That was lower than the previous year, when 37% said they were expecting a tax hike. But the number of people reporting a tax reduction also declined; in 2019 only 14% said they got a tax cut, compared with 23% in 2018 who said they were expecting one. About half of 2019 respondents — 46% — said their tax bill was unchanged.
Washington Post/Ipsos Poll
How do these 2017 results stack up with current polling about the OBBBA? Generally speaking, Americans are unimpressed by the new bill. When asked for their views on the OBBBA as a whole — including not only its tax cuts but also its dramatic spending reductions in a wide array of popular programs like Medicaid — they oppose the bill by large margins. These results are consistent across several polls conducted in June.
In a Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted in early to mid-June, 42% of respondents said they opposed the bill as it was passed by the House in May; only 23% supported the measure.
Notably, many people were ambivalent or uninformed; 34% said they had no opinion on the legislation. An even larger group said they didn’t know much about the bill in the first place: 66% reported that they had heard little or nothing about it, compared with 34% who had heard “a great deal” or “a good amount.”
The large number of “no opinion” respondents, combined with widespread ignorance of the measure, may be good news for Republicans. Apparently, they have room to improve.
But of course, the downside potential is real, too. And maybe more likely, given another finding from the poll. “Those who have heard a great deal or a good amount about [the bill] oppose it by a roughly 2-to-1 margin, 64% to 33%, with nearly half strongly in opposition,” The Washington Post reported. Apparently, more information doesn’t translate into more support — it may even reduce it.
KFF Poll
A KFF survey from June 4-8 revealed similar levels of opposition, with 64% of respondents reporting an unfavorable opinion of the bill and only 35% a favorable one.
The KFF poll digs a little deeper to examine partisan differences and uncovers mostly what you would expect. A large majority of Democrats (85%) oppose the OBBBA, as does a slightly smaller but still commanding majority of independents (71%). By contrast, 61% of Republicans support the bill.
If that Republican figure seems underwhelming, then brace yourself: The news gets even worse. “Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who identify as supporters of President Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, a large majority (72%) view the bill favorably,” KFF noted. “In contrast, most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who don’t identify as MAGA supporters view the bill unfavorably (66%).”
Overall, Republican support seems lukewarm, especially when compared with Democratic opposition.
Quinnipiac Poll
In a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters conducted June 5-9, 53% said they opposed the OBBBA, with 27% saying they supported it, and 20% offering no opinion. Among Republicans of all types, 67% supported the bill and 10% opposed it; 22% had no opinion. Democrats overwhelmingly opposed the measure, 89% to 2%, with 10% undecided. Independents opposed the bill 57% to 20%, with 23% undecided.
Notably, Quinnipiac found voters to be more engaged with the legislation than some other polls, like the Washington Post/Ipsos survey. Sixty-eight percent told Quinnipiac they had heard “a lot” or “some” about the measure, while 32% had heard “not too much” or “not much at all.”
It’s worth noting that Quinnipiac uses a sample of self-identified registered voters, while the Washington Post/Ipsos and KFF polls are based on samples of all U.S. adults. The Pew Research Center has an explanation of why this distinction matters.
Pew Research Center
In its own polling on the OBBBA, conducted June 2-8, Pew found relatively good news for Republicans. Or perhaps less bad news, since even this survey was pretty grim for OBBBA champions.
A near majority in the Pew survey opposed the OBBBA, with 49% against and 29% in favor; 21% were unsure. For the most part, people said they thought the OBBBA would be bad for America. “While 54% say it would have a mostly negative effect on the country in the coming years, 30% say it would have a mostly positive effect,” Pew reported. “Another 12% think it would not have much of an impact.” When asked how the bill would affect their families, 24% of respondents said they expected the effects to be mostly positive, while 47% expected them to be mostly negative.
Fox News
Results from a Fox News poll conducted June 13-16 (also among registered voters) found familiar patterns in popular support for the OBBBA — and offered some useful context relative to the 2017 tax law.
Most respondents said they understood the bill, 60% to 40%. Asked a similar question shortly after passage of the 2017 tax law, 54% said they understood the TCJA “very” or “somewhat well,” as opposed to 40% who said they understood it “not very” well or “not at all.” So people are paying attention now just like they were in 2017.
But familiarity didn’t breed support. Based on what they knew about the OBBBA, 59% of respondents to the Fox poll said they opposed the bill, while 38% favored it; just 3% said they didn’t know. A similar question from 2017 found 37% against the TCJA and 38% in favor. Once again, popular opinion seems to be following a familiar track.
Views on Tax Provisions
In probing specific aspects of the bill, Pew found important distinctions between various provisions. Notably, it found “more support [for] than opposition” to extending the 2017 tax cuts, with 42% strongly or somewhat in favor and 35% strongly or somewhat opposed; 33% were unsure.
Respondents supported an increase in the state and local tax deduction by 39% to 30%, with 31% unsure. Higher taxes on colleges and universities were also relatively popular (compared with other parts of the bill), with 44% in favor and 36% opposed; 20% were unsure.
Notably, green tax credits proved to be relatively popular, with respondents narrowly opposed to ending consumer credits for electric vehicle purchases and business credits for wind, solar, and nuclear energy production.
The Washington Post/Ipsos poll also probed attitudes toward specific tax provisions in the OBBBA, finding general support for extension of the 2017 tax cuts. But not for everyone. Respondents were enthusiastic about extending the cuts for single taxpayers earning less than $100,000 annually (and for married couples with incomes less than $200,000): Respondents supported extension for this group by 71% to 10%.
For those earning between $100,000 and $200,000 ($200,000 to $400,000 for couples), support dropped to 53% and opposition rose to 27%. And majority support for extension disappeared entirely when people were asked about wealthy taxpayers (defined as those earning more than $400,000 individually or $450,000 as a couple). Only 29% of respondents favored extending the 2017 tax cuts for this group, while 51% opposed extension.
Views of other tax provisions varied substantially in the Washington Post/Ipsos poll:
- increasing the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500 for parents who are U.S. citizens: 72% in favor, 13% opposed;
- ending the $7,500 consumer tax credit for EV purchases: 42% in favor, 37% opposed;
- ending tax breaks for solar, wind, and geothermal energy production: 31% in favor, 51% opposed; and
- eliminating income taxes on earnings from tips: 65% in favor, 21% opposed.
Health Spending Cuts Are a Problem
The OBBBA’s tax provisions are a mixed bag when it comes to popular opinion. And even the relatively popular tax provisions are probably being dragged down by the bill’s spending cuts, which are polling very badly. As the KFF poll revealed, cuts in popular health programs, especially Medicaid, are a real problem for the GOP. Perhaps worst of all, the problem gets worse whenever people learn more about the cuts.
When voters as a whole were told that the OBBBA would cut funding for local hospitals, support for the measure fell from 35% to 21%; opposition rose from 64% to 79%.
“Similarly, after being told that the bill would increase the number of people without health insurance by about 10 million, support falls to 25% and opposition rises to 74%,” according to a KFF summary of the findings.
This trend held true even for self-identified MAGA supporters: More information produced less support. In fact, support among MAGA voters dropped by more than 20 percentage points when spending cuts were featured in the question. That reduced overall MAGA support for the OBBBA to less than 50% — a big problem for the bill’s champions.
Sobering History
The race to define the OBBBA isn’t over yet — Republicans still have time to change the narrative. And they are working hard at it. The White House is leading the charge with a series of statements hailing the measure and urging lawmakers to pass it quickly.
But it’s an uphill battle, and GOP members of Congress have reason to be concerned. Americans seem very dubious about the OBBBA, just like they were of the TCJA. And many of the same patterns seem poised to repeat themselves.
In particular, Americans are inclined to oppose tax cuts for wealthy individuals. This sort of distributional concern did a lot to undermine the TCJA during Trump’s first term — and probably just as much to boost Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
The 2026 midterms are still a ways off. But even in a Congress filled with newcomers, the memory of 2018 (and its electoral fallout for a beleaguered GOP) should be fresh enough to keep people worried.
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