A few weeks before the IRS began accepting tax returns on January 27, 2025, taxpayers and tax professionals—including me—expected a relatively normal filing season. But as things began to change—the former IRS Commissioner submitted his resignation, a hiring freeze kicked in, and IRS employees were offered the chance to leave early—the tax filing season began to look a little less predictable. That might explain why early numbers suggest that taxpayers aren’t rushing to file.
Early filing data reflects a 14% downturn in tax returns received compared to the prior year. The IRS, however, isn’t concerned, noting on its website that “[l]arge percentage changes in filing season numbers are usually seen at the beginning of each tax season” and that “[h]istorically, these numbers even out in future weeks as more tax returns come in.”
The IRS went on to note that because many taxpayers were still waiting for important tax documents at the end of January (the due date was January 31), the IRS expects the tax return filing numbers will catch up in the following weeks.
I’m not entirely convinced. There was a lot of chatter as the tax season opened reflecting confusion among taxpayers. Why? As noted earlier, the IRS is currently without a permanent Commissioner (and the acting Commissioner has not posted a message to taxpayers). A Trump Administration hiring freeze at the tax agency has begun, with existing job offers being rescinded. President Trump suggested he might fire some current IRS workers or move those authorized to carry guns to the border for immigration enforcement.
All this got taxpayers wondering how different the tax season might be. As the season opened, Adam Markowitz, an enrolled agent in Windermere, Florida, posted on BlueSky, “I’ve now had three conversations this week telling people that yes, they still have to file tax returns this year. Are we really at this point?”
As a result, I eventually posted an article confirming that taxpayers still needed to file.
And, apparently, those in D.C. were a little worried about the filing season, too. This week, the administration walked back its previous efforts to get IRS employees to resign. The IRS confirmed that specific, critical filing season positions are now exempt from the Deferred Resignation Program (DR) until after tax season ends. It is unclear who exactly fits that criteria, but the memo notes that it includes those in Taxpayer Services, Information Technology, and the Taxpayer Advocate Service.
Whatever the reason, the early numbers in 2025 are sluggish. The IRS has received 15,318,000 individual income tax returns in 2024, compared with 13,177,000 in 2025. That’s, as noted, a drop of 14.0%—and keep in mind that is a drop from early 2024, when taxpayers were waiting to see what Congress would do about those potentially retroactive tax benefits (it never happened). The drop is pretty significant if you compare the 2025 filing season with the 2023 filing season (30%).
(About 2/3 of those returns were self-prepared, which is not unusual to see early in the tax season.)
The data shows that the IRS has processed 11,727,700 individual income tax returns as of January 31, 2025, compared to 13,928,000 by February 2, 2024. That’s a decrease of 15.8%.
Web visits to IRS.gov were also sharply down, dipping 34.8% compared to 2024. There have been 68,287,000 visits to the website as of January 31, 2025, compared to the 104,788,000 visits by February 2, 2024.
The downturn in web visits may reflect the fact that the website has not been regularly updated—there have been only four press releases posted since the season opened.
There is a ray of sunshine: the average tax refund is up. The IRS has issued 3,231,000 tax refunds so far in 2025 compared to 2,616,000 in 2024, a boost of 23.5%. The average tax refund is also up: $1,928 per taxpayer as of January 31, 2025, compared to $1,395 as of February 2, 2024, an increase of 38.2%. The average refund issued by direct deposit is even higher in 2025: $2,069 (as compared to $1,543 in 2024).
We expect tax refund numbers to change in the next few weeks. The law requires the IRS to hold refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the ACTC until mid-February. The rule applies to the entire refund—even the portion not associated with the EITC and ACTC. That means if you qualify for the refundable credit, you’ll have to wait until the IRS can release it. As a result, if you’re an early EITC/ACTC filer, you should begin to see tax refunds by March 3—some taxpayers could see their refunds a few days earlier. That estimate is based on processing times, allowing for Presidents’ Day, which is a federal and bank holiday.
Once those EITC/ACTC returns are eligible to be processed, we should see an uptick in a number of categories, including refunds issued and average refund amounts. It will be interesting, however, to see exactly how much those numbers climb. Will taxpayers file now or wait and see?
It’s been an unpredictable season so far. Check back in as the season progresses as Forbes continues to track those IRS numbers.
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