To paraphrase Wayne Gretzky: skate toward where the puck is going, not where it has been. For Manhattan buyers and sellers, the key to taking advantage of 2025’s summer market will be understanding where trends are headed, not what they were this spring. To that end, let’s look at some of the metrics shaping the upcoming summer market to see what they reveal about the shifting dynamics for Manhattan buyers and sellers.
1. Sales Pulse
Manhattan’s proprietary Pulse index, a seasonally adjusted ratio of demand to supply, turned negative in late April for the first time in ten months as supply began outweighing demand. Last summer’s positive readings foreshadowed a modest rebound in deal activity, and spring saw that play out with strong March and April numbers. But the slide below zero now warns that seller leverage may be ebbing as the market falls back into its seasonal groove.
2. Market Climate
The UD Climate Ratio (successful vs. failed listings) dipped slightly to 2.13 in April. While this is still tied for the second-highest reading since the post-pandemic rally, it is down from its recent high in March. That suggests deals are getting done, but buyer caution is creeping in. While pockets of strength remain, don’t expect a runaway summer frenzy.
3. Supply & Demand Dynamics
Supply: Listings are essentially flat year-over-year. The “lock-in” effect (owners sitting tight on low-rate mortgages) is easing, but inventory remains thin in many segments.
Demand: Overall signed contracts are up about 12% vs. last summer, but momentum varies by size, price, and building type. For instance, the $2 million to $4 million price range is seeing demand up 23% compared to last year. In contrast, with mortgage rates continuing to hover around 7%, the more financing-dependent price points are seeing more supply with less volume. Case in point, the under $1 million segment is seeing a 4% drop in demand against a backdrop of supply rising 5%. In other words, those sectors with more cash deals are seeing more demand with less supply. Together, these point to slightly greater buyer leverage in the under-$2 million segment, but less so at the luxury end.
4. Price Trends
Units signed into contract in February with filed closing prices show a record $1,543 price per square foot, topping the prior high of $1,509 in April 2017. With March closings flowing through, we may see another all-time price peak, assuming volume holds. April’s seasonal volume pullback, in combination with macroeconomic jitters, may open the possibility of a modest price dip in May or June as the numbers eventually filter through, but with the lows in general uncertainty levels likely in, the door is open for another run higher in summer.
5. Rental Market Signals
Asking rents climbed to a new high of $4,800 in April (+6.7% year-over-year), blasting past the $4,500 ceiling and signaling a hot summer ahead, especially as 7% mortgage rates push borrowing costs higher. Still, tight rental conditions could spill over into the sales market, especially at sub-$1 million price points, as buyers frustrated by rising rents hunt for purchase deals. At the same time, the increasing pace of ultra-luxury rentals suggests an increasing appetite for luxury units.
6. Putting It All Together
The spring’s peak is in. March and early-April closings likely mark 2025’s high-water market for spring. The summer market will likely be one of churning, localized strength. With a negative pulse and an easing climate index, expect a steady flow of deals, but not across all tiers, as deal volume winds down for summer. As this column has previously noted, there is no one Manhattan market but rather a collection of dozens of micro-markets. The one unifying thread is price point. Heading into summer, here’s how those price points look:
- Under $1M: Churning market ahead with sideways price action.
- What to look out for: Frustrated renters entering the market
- $1M to $2M: Potential for slight price gains
- What to look out for: Competition staying tight despite seasonal slowness
- $2M to 4M: Modest price increases likely ahead as dynamics continue to favor sellers
- What to look out for: Micro-neighborhood shifts
- Above $4M: Supply constraints will likely drive prices higher
- What to look out for: Luxury buyers opting to rent instead
Advice for Sellers
Price for Today’s Buyers: Remember they’re comparing your listing to both yesterday’s comps and tomorrow’s fresh (and likely lower) prints. The natural reaction will be to negotiate lower. In addition, at lower price points, elevated mortgage rates will likely keep buyers disciplined. Luxury sellers who have so far faced less competition should remain alert to how new listings may affect their positioning.
Highlight Cost-of-Ownership vs. Renting: In the sub-$2 million market, make clear all-in monthly costs vs. comparable rents, as some buyers may be looking for a reason to make the jump from renting to owning.
Advice for Buyers
Stay Patient & Poised: The dip in prices caused by macroeconomic uncertainty has likely passed. Still, the lower deal volume of summer may present opportunities. Keep an eye on seller competition and local market shifts. Mortgage rates are higher, but their steady nature means you can plan ahead so you are ready to move quickly if and when needed.
Negotiate with Clarity: In the under-$2 million sector, every deal is likely to be negotiated from the get-go. Sellers will rely on the lack of options and rising prices, so buyers should enter with firm numbers and walk-away points.
With a marketplace in transition, summer 2025 in Manhattan will reward the prepared. That includes sellers who price right and buyers who are ready to pounce. In other words, skate to the market, not where it’s been.
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