Boeing appears to be making a longer-term low. The company has been hounded by bad news, falling since 2019 and giving back 78.6% of its ten-year 2009-2019 bull market. Relative strength bottomed in mid-November. A six-month relative strength base, the minimum that we would expect before a sustained rise, is now in place. There are higher momentum lows both weekly and monthly. In terms of monthly price, a downtrend line from the 2009 high has been snapped, suggesting a sustained rally that will carry through to $230 short-term and $270 longer-term.
Chart 1: Boeing Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Chart 2: Boeing Monthly Histogram
Chart 3: Boeing Monthly Cycle
United Health has made the headlines by pulling the DJIA down, falling from $599 on April 11th to $308 on May 11th. Relative strength has been falling since 2022. There are no signs of technical or relative strength. May has been the strongest month in any year. A higher price in May has been followed by higher prices in the coming months 60% to 70% of the time over the past 40 years. Price has closed lower in May only ten times with higher prices following in only 50% of the ensuing months. The monthly cycle tells a tale. It has led price down and does not hit a low until late September. By that time, the share price is likely to reach $250, the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2008-2024 rally.
Chart 4: United Health Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Chart 5: United Health Monthly Histogram
Chart 6: United Health Monthly Cycle
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