There is little chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates on January 29. Fixed income markets currently project a 99.5% chance that interest rates are held steady at their current level of 4.25% to 4.5% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, a March or May cut in interest rates remains possible. There is roughly an even chance of an interest rate cut at one or both of those meetings. For December’s employment report job creation has remained robust. For example, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on January 6, “The labor market is solid, with…

The price of oil is headed higher and with it some of the big oil stocks that benefit from the action. Industry analysts are busy figuring out how much of this has to do with the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, how much it has to do with the incoming Trump administration and how much it has to do with other world events. Oil is the highest it’s been since 2022 and investors have taken notice. The really big stocks in the sector — Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron — have yet to achieve the “higher highs” status. Nevertheless, the names mentioned…

As we enter 2025, the financial markets are presenting a peculiar dissonance. On one side, we have equity markets near all-time highs, buoyed by expectations of lower interest rates and a soft landing. On the other, we have a rapidly escalating Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, painting a starkly different picture of the road ahead. This divergence is not just unusual; it’s a clarion call for investors to brace for impact. The EPU index, a critical tool for forward-looking investors, has surged to levels not seen since the pandemic’s onset. This spike is largely attributed to the uncertainty surrounding “Trump…

A stock can be down but not cheap, or cheap but not down. The stocks on my Casualty List are both. They are stocks that have been pummeled in the latest quarter, and that I think have strong rebound potential. I’ll lead of my latest Casualty List with D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), the largest U.S. homebuilder. Seven-percent mortgages have been poisonous to homebuilders, and Horton was down 26% in the fourth quarter – in a rising market, at that. If you had held Horton for the past ten years, you would have made 543% on your investment (as of January…

Artificial Intelligence can do a lot of things, but it can’t keep humans from distractions like social media and the tyranny of now… Ask Google search how artificial intelligence is going to change the way we work and you’ll get an answer along the lines of: “AI can handle repetitive and time-consuming tasks… . This frees employees to focus on more strategic and creative aspects of their jobs, ultimately boosting productivity and job satisfaction.” Really? The first part of that response is clearly true. You can go to the hospital one morning to get a chest X-ray that an AI…

“Drill Baby Drill!” The signature energy battle cry of Donald Trump has returned to center stage as he returns to the White House. His vision for American energy dominance is taking shape with the nomination of Chris Wright, a vocal advocate for fossil fuels, as his choice for Energy Secretary. Wright, 60, made his position clear during his Senate confirmation hearing last week: “Previous administrations have viewed energy as a liability instead of the immense national asset that it is.” His appointment signals a dramatic shift from current energy policies, with a laser focus on expanding domestic production across multiple…

Considered the pillar of the worldwide aerospace industry, Boeing has long related to aviation creativity and capability. But the giant is now negotiating difficult skies under the weight of many financial pressures, strict regulatory monitoring, and constant market dynamics. Recent events have complicated the story; activist investors show a strong interest in the business, and reports of Warren Buffett may be looking at a position. With major ramifications for Boeing’s own future as well as for its shareholders and the larger aerospace sector, this confluence of high-profile attention will demand a turning point for the company. The rumor is that…

Hedge funds have lost some of their luster in recent years, with institutions preferring to pour money in Wall Street’s newer crazes for dependable returns like private credit, but the most successful firms in the old guard are still delivering steady gains for their limited partner investors. The world’s top 20 hedge funds, ranked in order of estimated net gains since inception according to LCH Investments, cumulatively produced a record $93.7 billion in gains in 2024. Citadel, D.E. Shaw and Millennium Management remained the top three since inception and were also the top three performers in 2024 in particular, separating…

Diamonds have long been the ultimate symbol of love and commitment, their sparkling brilliance forever linked to life’s most emotional moments. Thanks to decades of marketing genius—most notably from De Beers—we’ve been conditioned to believe that true love demands an engagement ring worth at least two months’ salary because, after all, “a diamond is forever.” But what if couples could save up to 90% on a diamond ring and no one would ever know the difference? That option exists with lab-grown diamonds. They are chemically identical to their mined counterpart, replicating the natural formation process, using either high-pressure, high-temperature methods…

Ready for the inaugurations? Yes, with a plural. We are talking seven brand-new dividend stock programs today. Dividend payers are our beat here at Contrarian Outlook. And we welcome newcomers because they can really kick off a phenomenon I refer to as the Dividend Magnet. Over long time frames—years—stock prices follow their payout higher. We like dividend growers because they are the surest, safest way to profits in the stock market. Buy a rising payout, sit back, and watch the stock price chase it. New dividend payers can be even better because they tend to grow their dividends quickly. New…