Fifteen months ago, we contrarians started the bond bandwagon. It’s hard to believe now, but back then the financial suits hated fixed income. We faded their fears, bought bonds and benefited. Now, however, I’m cautious on bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield has been on a tear since Jay Powell first cut the Fed Funds Rate. You can’t make this stuff up. On September 18, Powell cut rates by 50 basis points. However, this was only the “short end” of the yield curve. The 10-year yield meanwhile (the “long end”) popped from 3.7% to nearly 4.5% in a matter of weeks!…

Yes, the “Trump” name remains, but DJT’s brand valuation is slipping. No longer does Donald Trump need Truth Social for communication or DJT stock for clout. So, why is that bad news? Because Trump Media’s weak fundamentals are beginning to outweigh the former Trump-brand, meme-stock popularity. This about-face valuation shift is not unusual for SPAC-merger companies. Most are now selling well below their original $10 offering prices, with many in the low single digits. Some companies even have resorted to reverse splits (for example, a 1:5 split, that exchanges 20 new shares for 100 original shares, thus increasing the share…

Immediately after President-Elect Donald Trump won his second term last week, the US dollar surged, while US Treasuries fell. Both moves are opposite sides of the same coin: Investors believe Trump’s policies will be inflationary. The theory suggests this would happen for a couple of reasons: The US government will spend more, and interest rates will rise higher than rates elsewhere in the world in response. That will attract foreign capital to America while making it less attractive for capital to leave the US. All of that extra capital in America will boost economic activity and demand for the dollar.…

If fiscal theory is right, even bigger federal deficits under President Trump could reignite inflation. It’s a good time to buy TIPS. By William Baldwin, Senior Contributor What drives inflation? Too much money, say the monetarists. When growth in the money supply exceeds growth in output, Milton Friedman declared, prices go up. That’s not quite right, say some dissident economists gathering under the banner of “fiscal theory.” The bigger factor, they say, is deficit spending. More precisely: federal deficits unaccompanied by any prospect of an eventual paydown. If the fiscal theorists are right, the future for holders of the usual…

Mega-caps have been in the spotlight, but the so-called Trump trade is making America great again for small cap stocks. Some could be attractive takeover targets for flush private equity firms. By Hank Tucker, Forbes Staff Donald Trump won the presidency and Republicans took control of the Senate last week in part by constantly reminding Americans of how much more they’ve paid for basic groceries during the last four years of high inflation, so it may come as a surprise that one of the fastest-growing small-cap companies in the U.S. sells the most expensive eggs in the supermarket. Since it…

Fresh off last month’s successful catch of a rocket booster, SpaceX’s second-in-command voiced her support for regulatory reform Friday. At the same time, she called for more competition in the space industry. “Regulation in the United States—and globally, with the exception of maybe China—is slowing technology down,” SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said at the 2024 Baron Investment Conference at New York City’s Lincoln Center. “We’ve got to move faster.” SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the richest person in the world with a net worth topping $300 billion, has been a longtime critic of what he contends is…

The insurance titan released its 3rd-quarter portfolio update, revealing new buys in a pizza chain company and a pool supplies company By GuruFocus Insights into Berkshire Hathaway’s Latest 13F Filing Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), often referred to as “The Oracle of Omaha,” is a towering figure in the world of investing. As the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, he transformed a modest textile company into a colossal conglomerate, primarily focusing on insurance and other diverse investments. Buffett’s investment philosophy, deeply influenced by Benjamin Graham, emphasizes understanding a business deeply, investing in companies with favorable long-term prospects, and purchasing at a significant…

Week in Review Asian equities were mixed for the week as Hong Kong and Korea underperformed and Pakistan and Singapore outperformed. Singles Day ended this week with a bang as parcel deliveries increased +9.7% year-over-year (YoY) during the sales festival. Tencent reported Q3 earnings this week, meeting analyst expectations, as Alibaba, JD.com, Bilibili, and NetEase also reported. The founder and Chairman of battery giant CATL said that he would open a US facility, if the US government would allow it, nodding to the incoming Trump administration. Alibaba Earnings Overview Alibaba announced results for the third quarter this morning. The company’s…

I was recently speaking with a couple where one partner made significantly more money than their other half. The person who made more asked me how household expenses should be divvied up. Whether married or unmarried, every couple needs to find an arrangement that works well for them and their relationship. Too often, assumptions and lack of communication can lead to someone feeling resentful and the relationship being at risk. This is how to manage household expenses with a large income gap. Communicate In the earlier example, the partner making more money had previously resorted to covering all the household…

Weather predictions is not something you hear much about as a mean of outperforming in the markets. Investment ideas go down the thesis route, where theories are expounded and extrapolated on how trends will drive prices. This is why tech is the 800-pound gorilla when it comes to stocks because there is nothing like new technology and its connected disruption to grab attention and drive excitement. However, weather is not so gripping. But wait, climate change is all about weather and the world has been dramatically pivoting around the potential catastrophic potential for that. I’ve been talking a lot with…