The Congressional Research Service found that as of the end of 2023, over two million Social Security beneficiaries had their retirement incomes reduced due to two programs: the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO). The Social Security Fairness Act was signed into law on January 5th, 2025 and eliminates this benefit reduction. This article outlines who is affected by this change and actions to take next. Who Is Affected All people who have worked at least 40 quarters, or 10 years, and contributed to Social Security are entitled to some level of benefits. The previous WEP rule…

In times of economic and political uncertainty, I often see investors turning to commodities. Types of commodities can range from precious metals like gold, to agricultural products, to energy resources. Their prices are all tied to something physical, whereas the stocks in other sectors may not be. If you’re an investor looking to grow your assets over time, it’s critical to understand were commodities may have a place in your portfolio. Why Investors Like Commodities Here are some reasons investors like to include commodities in their portfolios: Inflation Because commodities are generally tied to a physical asset, they are traditionally…

Key News Asian equities were mixed but mostly higher overnight as Mainland China outperformed while Hong Kong and the Philippines underperformed. The US Department of Defense (DOD) added CATL and Tencent to its Blacklist. Tencent fell -7.28% in Hong Kong overnight while CATL fell by only -2.84% in Mainland China. This reflects the differences in reactivity to foreign breaking news for international investors in Hong Kong versus mostly local investors in Mainland China. Neither company has a sponsored American depositary receipt (ADR) though Tencent has unsponsored ADRs, which fell over -6% in the US yesterday. Many brokers reiterated their Buy…

2025 is here and we’ve got a terrific opportunity in front of us: A shot at a very comfortable retirement with around $1.1 million saved. Heck, not only comfortable, but possible without withdrawing a single penny from our savings. And depending on your circumstances, you may be able to clock out on a lot less. I know that goes against the narrative that’s been driven into our heads for pretty much our entire lives as investors: That we need to work well into our sixties (and maybe beyond) before breaking free of our commitment to work. But from time to…

Despite relatively high interest rates and rising unemployment, the chance of a recession in 2025 is estimated to be low. The Federal Reserve’s projections for 2025 call for median economic growth of 2.1% in 2025, which would likely be sufficient to avoid recession risk. Forecasting site Kalshi currently gives a 21% chance of a recession before 2026, this is roughly an average probability compared to history. The stock market, which can be a leading indicator of economic activity, has risen over recent months. This suggests a recession is not close and the yield curve is moderately steep, which again, suggests…

CVS Health has been named as a Top 25 dividend stock, according the most recent Dividend Channel ”DividendRank” report. The report noted that among the coverage universe, CVS shares displayed both attractive valuation metrics and strong profitability metrics. For example, the recent CVS share price of $45.77 represents a price-to-book ratio of 0.8 and an annual dividend yield of 5.81% — by comparison, the average company in Dividend Channel’s coverage universe yields 4.4% and trades at a price-to-book ratio of 2.6. The report also cited the strong quarterly dividend history at CVS Health Corporation, and favorable long-term multi-year growth rates…

The Robot Portfolio returned more than 22% last year but was edged out by the surging Standard & Poor’s 500. Each year, the Robot – a naïve stock-picking paradigm, generates a theoretical portfolio of ten very unpopular stocks. The idea is that stocks advance by exceeding expectations, and low expectations are easier to exceed. Over the past 26 years, this hypothetical portfolio has returned 1,710%, compared to 673% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the…

Patience is required to buy into the company’s remarkable long-term prospects at a favorable valuation Summary Palantir’s stock, with a forward PE of 160 and 300+ EV/EBITDA, is highly overvalued, pricing in speculative growth and offering a -4% CAGR and -61.74% margin of safety over five years. While Palantir excels operationally with recession-resilient contracts, its valuation leaves investors vulnerable to GDP declines; Palantir’s stock could decline by -50% or more in a recession. A realistic valuation model forecasts $65.625/share by 2029 at a 37.5% net income margin and 75 PE, well below today’s $80.55, suggesting investors should wait for a…

There’s a lot of debate about the best ways to hedge against inflation. This results from the consensus view that future policies will do nothing but stoke it. Putting aside the problem that consensus views are often wrong, it’s usually a bad idea to pursue faddish, reactive approaches to macroeconomic predictions. Pundits are full of new advice—much of it fueled by Wall Street marketing teams—to park money in “inflation-hedged” ETFs, speculate in crypto, buy gold, or dabble in derivatives. As Warren Buffett would tell you, not one of these is the best way to prepare yourself for inflationary times. Buffett…

Fixed income markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025, but not by much. Short-term interest rates are expected to end 2025 close to 4%, down from the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as of January 2025. This is after the Fed cut rates in December 2024. This forecast assumes that the U.S. economy continues to grow, unemployment remains slightly above 4% and inflation ends the year close to 2.5%. These projections were the median forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee policymakers in December 2024. If the economy performs differently than these expectations, then the interest…