Today’s markets are flooded with noise—AI hype, FOMO-fueled rallies, and sudden liquidity shocks. Amid the chaos, what’s missing isn’t more opinions, it’s clarity. In this environment, the key to successful investing is not loudness but maintaining a sense of groundedness. Over the past month, I sat down with three seasoned fund managers whose strategies span the spectrum: On paper, their philosophies differ. In practice, their edge converges. Each manager thrives by doing the same thing: cutting through the noise with clarity, leaning on process over prediction, and keeping risk front and center. When markets fracture, it’s not tactics that separate…

Let me start with a prediction: the S&P 500 will gain about 5% this year—not great, but not bad, either. This isn’t really a Nostradamus-level call: I’m simply annualizing the gain the market has posted so far in 2025, as of this writing. We can think of this year as the middle stage of the business cycle—where inflation is cooling, the labor market is softening, and consumer spending is starting to slow (emphasis on starting to). In other words, it’s the perfect setup for us to make sure we’re well diversified by looking at assets beyond stocks. At the top…

As I’m sure you have heard, Moody’s downgraded US debt last weekend. The stock market panic that ensued lasted for, oh, about an hour of trading. Why did this already get shrugged off? It’s a classic empty-calorie headline. The practical impact of the downgrade to top holders of Treasuries—banks and pension funds—is nil. Treasuries are still classified as top-grade collateral, which means banks can continue to leverage these securities. T-bills are just as good as cash for bank reserves, as they were before the downgrade. No need to scramble for new collateral. And Treasuries still have investment-grade status, which means…

A diversified commodity fund might suit your needs. But watch those fees—and the wacky tax treatment. Budget deficits are going to be insane. Moody’s belatedly admits that the U.S. Treasury is a questionable debtor. God knows what new surprises are coming from Washington. What about having a commodity as an inflation hedge? Gold is hot, oil is not. You could own a bullion fund (up 79% over the past three years), or you might feel safer diversifying your risks with a commodity futures fund. Such a fund holds derivatives tied to the prices of a basket of physical assets—crude oil,…

In trading on Friday, shares of SiriusXM Holdings were yielding above the 5% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $1.08), with the stock changing hands as low as $21.59 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market’s total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the iShares Russell 3000 ETF (IWV) back on 5/31/2000 — you would have paid $78.27 per share. Fast forward to 5/31/2012 and each share was worth $77.79 on that date, a loss of $0.48…

In the five years since the global shutdown that heralded the Covid-19 pandemic, the retail industry has weathered a once-in-a-generation evolutionary spasm which, like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, has forced brands and companies to adapt or die. As the industry grapples with a new challenge—the squabble over tariffs—it’s worth pausing a moment to reflect on what has changed, what hasn’t, and what we’ve learned. 1. E-commerce is dead as a discrete retail channel. Today it is just one of many elements called the omni-channel. And as a percentage of the consumer economy, it has peaked. Five years…

Update from January Sell-Off in Artificial Intelligence January 27, 2025, saw several dozen stocks related to artificial intelligence infrastructure post lag single day drops, in many cases just days after reaching 52-week highs. The news of a large language model being developed (DeepSeek) for much cheaper than had been previous thought capable was released. Shortly after, we looked for past precedent of stocks dropping very quickly from highs and for what the playbook going forward had been. We looked back over the past four years, and when stocks above the $10B market cap dropped at least 15% from 52-week or…

The 2025 New York Sohn Conference wrapped up on May 14, bringing with it many interesting stock picks and ideas. Here are all the stocks that were presented at this year’s conference — with some brief tidbits about why the presenters like the stocks. Next Wave at Sohn Conference VictoryArc’s Joseph Talia pitched the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TLV:TASE). He said the company enjoys a monopolistic opportunity in an underdeveloped capital market. Talia sees several factors to drive double-digit top-line growth. The company has a net cash balance sheet and could be a take-out target. Talia thinks the stock can…

Week in Review Asian equities were mostly lower for the week, except for Indonesia, Hong Kong, and Vietnam, while Malaysia, Thailand, and Japan underperformed. The Mainland-listed Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the world’s largest battery maker, listed shares in Hong Kong on Tuesday, marking the largest IPO globally so far this year. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut the 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.0% from 3.1% and the 5-Year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%. It was another busy week for earnings, as Baidu, Full Truck Alliance, and Xpeng all beat expectations on earnings per share…

Stocks will begin Friday deep in the red following news that President Trump is threatening new tariffs for products imported from Europe, and a declaration of 25% tariffs on iPhones sold but not made in the United States. The bad old days of tariffs are back. I want to be clear: a strong consensus of investors believes that the president’s tariff policy is an unmitigated disaster. This is not a political statement. If President Trump is using tariffs as a negotiating strategy to get better trade deals, he’s doing that poorly. Tariff threats should be made in private to trade…