Job cuts are a little over 172,000 for February according to the Challenger Report, which tracks announced layoffs. Government job losses are a about a third of the total. That’s the highest overall level of layoffs for February since the financial crisis in 2009, though job losses in January were more typical. Overall, February tracked job cuts are estimated to be double the prior year. Within that are 62,000 government layoffs. Government layoffs are a leading contributor to spiking job losses, but retail and technology are seeing notably increasing layoffs, too, according to the Challenger report. Why Government Job Losses…

Question: Why are there so many mutual funds? Answer: Mutual fund management is profitable, so Wall Street creates more products to sell. The large number of mutual funds has little to do with serving your best interests as an investor. I leverage my firm’s data to identify two red flags you can use to avoid the worst mutual funds: 1. High Fees Mutual funds should be cheap, but not all of them are. The first step is to benchmark what cheap means. To ensure you are paying at or below average fees, invest only in mutual funds with total annual…

Uncertainty appears to be the theme of 2025. From tariffs to geopolitics, we have a nonstop flow of news that has vanilla investors quite rattled. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index dipped back into the Extreme Fear zone earlier this week. Markets don’t like ambiguity. But that does not mean that we income investors need to sell everything. Heck, or anything! This is a split stock market and we contrarians are rolling with the dividend victors. The bifurcated financial landscape is not news to us. We discussed the likelihood of major “winners and losers” in Trump 2.0 immediately after the November…

JD.com Earnings Review E-commerce giant JD.com (JD US, 9618 HK) reported Q4 financial results post-the Hong Kong close/pre-US market open that beat analyst expectations. JD Retail revenue increased 14.7% for the quarter and 7.5% for the year. The company noted the “increasing demand” for electronics and home appliances for Revenue increased +13.4% to RMB 347B ($47.5B) versus expectations of RMB 332B and Q4 2023’s RMB 306B Adjusted net income RMB 11.3B ($1.5B) versus expectations of RMB 9.283B and Q4 2023’s RMB 8.41B Adjusted EPS RMB 7.42 ($1.02) versus expectations of RMB 6.18 and Q4 2023’s RMB 5.30 Q1 2024 Revenue…

Examining the Strengths and Challenges of a Key Player in United States Kidney Care By Pietro Lavisci, MD Summary DaVita is a leading provider of kidney care services, focusing on dialysis. Its services are essential, making demand relatively inelastic even during economic downturns. Holding a significant market share (over 36%) in the US dialysis market, the company has a moat. While demonstrating reliable profitability and positive free cash flow, revenue and income growth is modest. This may explain recent trimming by its biggest shareholder, Warren Buffett. DaVita products may be unknown to most of you, yet the ownership structure could…

The Q1 correction is unfolding. February in a post-election year has been the weakest in the 48-month ‘presidential’ cycle. February 2025 has certainly continued this tradition. The indices are likely to bottom later in March. Cycles have been helpful in technology stock positioning. The “Fab Seven” stocks are the focus. Let us look at four of the seven by making cycle projections into later 2025. Apple began its correction before most stocks in the technology sector did so. Because Apple began its correction early, it is likely to recover before the other tech equities do. Relative strength bottomed in November.…

It is no secret that the latest economic data has rekindled fears of an impending recession. The Atlanta Fed’s estimate for real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth for the current quarter was just slashed to negative 2.8% from a previously optimistic 2.3%, while Bloomberg’s probability of a recession ticked up to 25%. No doubt, the ongoing tariff skirmish is not helping, especially as related to the health of the consumer. Yet, if history has taught us anything, it is that market timing based on economic downturns is an exercise in futility. Those attempting to sidestep recessions by exiting equities often find themselves…

At the National People’s Congress, Premier Li provided the government work report. The lack of Western media coverage is interesting, so I pulled out the choice lines. Consumption comes up a lot, indicating where policy support is headed. Artificial intelligence was also explicitly mentioned. Real estate was not as big of a focus, though a large part of the bond issuance is linked to real estate support as local governments have been given more latitude to support project completion. Jonathan Krane’s thesis in creating our firm was to align China investment products with government policy. We are looking good in…

Several indicators are hinting that recession risk for the U.S. economy might be greater than previously feared. the Atlanta Fed’s model recently suggested that economic growth might be negative in Q1 2025. In addition, parts of the yield curve have re-inverted and consumer confidence declined in February. Prediction market Kalshi is currently estimating a 40% chance of recession in 2025, that’s up sharply in recent weeks. Still, a 40% chance still implies that a recession is most likely avoided. This combination of signals is unlikely to be sufficient to predict that a recession is coming in 2025, but the risks…

Let me say right now that, like most people, I have no idea where the trade tensions we’re living through will end up. But here’s something I will say: Whenever I have any doubt about the future, I look to the 10-year Treasury rate—and I recommend you do the same. And the 10-year rate—pacesetter for rates on most loans—is screaming one thing at us right now: Fade the inflation fears that are everywhere these days. So we’re going to take Mr. 10-Year’s advice and “buy the dip” in 2 “bond-proxy” closed-end funds (CEFs)—each yielding around 7%—that we’ll discuss in a…