Company insiders are ditching their own stock more than usual. An exception is oil and gas executives, some of whom are buying while their shares are depressed. To gauge insider sentiment, look at the ratio of buys to sells by top executives and large shareholders. According to Gurufocus.com, about 34% of insiders’ transactions normally are buys. In February the figure was only 24%. During the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, when stock prices dived, insiders stepped up to the plate and bought shares at an above-normal clip five months in a row. Insiders also bought a lot of…

The last posting on March 6th analyzed the prospects for four of the Magnificent Seven or the “Fab” Seven as some commentators have renamed the group. Let us apply the same approach to Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Tesla. (I added Netflix in the first posting, so we are analyzing the big eight.) The overall stock market is projected to be in a trading range this year. Cycles will be a useful guide in trading the tech heavyweights in 2025. As we can see below, the Amazon cycle bottoms now. This cycle is synchronized with the Amazon seasonal cycle. From…

Financial market volatility soared last week as new tariffs for Canada, Mexico, and China went into effect, and investors reacted to a potential slowdown in the U.S. from growing economic uncertainty. European developments added to the volatility as announcements for additional fiscal spending sent shivers through the bond market but provided optimism for equity investors in certain sectors. Winners were European defense stocks, international equities, and U.S. dividend payers. Losers were non-U.S. bonds, the consumer discretionary sector, and momentum stocks. Let’s examine each of these moves in more detail. European Defense Stocks Rally President Donald Trump’s recent policies—such as suspending…

In today’s broadcast of This Week with George Stephanopoulos, UAW President Sean Fain came out in support of President Trump’s tariffs. Why would a labor president of the sixth largest union in America, one that typically favors Democrats over Republicans, come out on a major network in support of the president’s policies? Here’s why. Fain’s Comments on Trump’s Tariffs and Trade Fain was asked why he supports Trump’s tariffs. Here’s what he said. “We’re in a crisis mode in this country. There is no single issue in this country that has affected our economy and working class people and their…

If Trump 2.0 rhymes with Trump 1.0, then this is an intriguing time to consider small cap dividends. Let me explain—and then we’ll highlight a handful of 11.1% to 12.6% dividend stocks. In 2016, smaller companies popped for weeks amid largely sentiment over what President Donald Trump’s election would mean for the market broadly and small caps specifically. But that sentiment-related pop eventually turned into years of underperformance as theory became reality—and unfavorable conditions forced investors to stop betting on small caps as a group, and instead separate winners and losers. Fast-forward to Trump 2.0. I wrote in December that…

President Trump’s economic policies have created significant market turbulence as his administration reshapes America’s global relationships. The US withdrawal from NATO has sent shockwaves through international alliances, with European countries now scrambling to increase defense spending to unprecedented levels. What these sweeping changes will ultimately mean for investors isn’t clear. The forces driving the equity, bond, currency and commodity markets will change in ways that cannot yet be predicted. So far, the main effect has been a $3 trillion reduction in the value of US stocks since the January 20 inauguration. The only rational response for investors is to stay…

After a lengthy rise, homebuilder stocks have dropped around 30%. Time to buy? Probably not. Fundamentals began weakening last year as homebuilders continued to build their significantly large inventories even as sales tapered off. (See Oct. 4 article, “Homebuilder Optimism May Be Ending As Conditions Weaken”) The homebuilder cycles New home buying tends to run in lengthy cycles. The current trend is now downwards as the number of buyers shrinks. Likely, the cause is more than a high mortgage rate. New home prices are no longer rising, thereby removing a key driver of buyer interest. Add in today’s high uncertainties…

The logic for potential interest rate cuts in 2025 may be changing as some early recession indicators pick up while disinflation remains possible. Current expectations are that the Federal Open Market Committee may cut again in May or June. Entering 2025 markets anticipated that inflation might trend closer to the FOMC’s 2% annual target and policymakers would patiently wait for that before cutting interest rates. That’s still a probable outcome, but now the FOMC might consider cutting rates in response to economic weakness, rather than cooling inflation. Heightened Economic Uncertainty Adds Risk Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently sounded a…

When it comes to the economy, we’re in a bit of a weird spot: The data tells us that, despite inflation fears, interest rates are likely to fall in the year ahead. Falling rates point in one clear direction for us contrarian income-seekers: corporate bonds. Our preferred way to tap into them? Discounted closed-end funds (CEFs) with big dividend yields. If investors know any corporate-bond CEFs at all, they probably know the PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI). It’s the biggest of the bunch, with a $5.1-billion market cap and a monster 13.3% yield. With that in mind, PDI is a…

Looking to History for Clues of a New Rally Uncertainty about the state of the U.S. and global economy, corporate profitability and spending of AI, as well as the forward path of inflation and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts led to a decline in the U.S. stock market. Currently, as of March 6 intraday, the S&P 500 is down -2.3%, the Nasdaq Composite is down –6.4% and the small cap Russell 2000 is down –7.3% for the year. The S&P 500 is testing its 200-DMA and looks increasingly likely to breach that level. As a result, we think it…