Prediction markets imply a 40% chance of recession in 2025. Reported economic data has been generally positive, so far. However, forward-looking indicators, including the stock market suggests risks may be on the horizon. Here’s what the data is telling us, so far. Economic Data Has Been Good, So Far Despite recession predictions, recent key economic data has been generally good. Q4 annualized Gross Domestic Product growth rose at a healthy 2.3% rate on the most recent estimate. That’s sufficiently strong that there’s room for growth to decline yet remain above recessionary levels. Unemployment, too, has been relatively stable at 4.1%…

BYD, the world’s biggest electric vehicle maker, plans to raise its market share in Europe by building factories there to avoid stiff tariffs while news of its latest technology breakthroughs might persuade doubting customers to embrace Chinese EVs. BYD’s factory in Hungary will start production later this year with a capacity of 150,000 a year, rising to 300,000. A second one in Turkey with similar volume starts up next year, while the company has said a 3rd factory is on the cards but won’t say where. Somewhere in Germany is the current favorite to avoid the European Union’s extra 17%…

Dell stock appears undervalued, driven by ISG growth and supported by a solid margin of safety, despite challenges in the CSG segment. By Bernard Zambonin Summary Dell’s stock has faced recent stagnation but the company’s core business remains strong, especially in its ISG segment driven by AI. The CSG segment is struggling with weak margins and low growth, but there’s still potential for moderate recovery through AI-driven PC demand. Dell’s ISG segment is highly valuable with a projected equity value of $87.9 billion, making up the majority of the company’s overall value and offering significant upside potential. Dell Technologies (DELL,…

Key News Asian equities had a strong day led by Hong Kong after US-listed China ADRs rose, while Japan, India, and Malaysia saw gains, though Indonesia fell. Hong Kong grinded higher on strong volume and strong breadth, as advancers handily outpaced decliners by nearly 4 to 1, while Mainland China bounced around the room. This morning’s BofA fund manager survey noted a big decline in US equity allocations while there were increases in Europe and emerging markets. US-listed China stocks and European ETFs have not seen significant flows year-to-date (YTD), possibly indicating that US-based investors haven’t adjusted their portfolios versus…

For years, it’s been a struggle to try to convince many US investors to spread some of their money abroad. It’s only natural: We simply tend to favor the familiar—our home country—over others. Investors the world over have this natural bias. But that’s been slowly changing in recent months. Which is great news, because diversifying internationally is a particularly smart move in times like these. Moreover, when you diversify—especially through 8%+ yielding income investments like closed-end funds (CEFs)—you can easily rebalance your holdings in line with changes in the market, moving more into US stocks when they’re low, say, and…

The next Consumer Price Index report for the month of March will be released on April 10. Expectations are that headline monthly inflation will be flat due, in part, to falling energy prices. However, core CPI may rise between 0.2% and 0.3%. That’s according to latest nowcast estimates from Cleveland Federal Reserve models. March’s CPI Report for the month of February showed 0.2% monthly headline inflation and the same rate for core inflation. The inflation report will be closely analyzed for any early tariff impact. Annual inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% annual target,…

BMW expects U.S. tariff discussions won’t be too complicated and could cost it just over €1 billion in 2025 but President Trump has been particularly critical of Europe’s trade policies and this might extend the auto industry’s negotiations into a more costly hassle. BMW CEO Oliver Zipse told Bloomberg Television the €1.1 billion ($1.2 billion) figure was conservative and included tariff negotiations with Mexico, Canada and Europe. Zipse was talking after BMW announced net profit fell by more than 30% in 2024 to €7.68 billion ($8.39 billion) because of weak sales in China and Germany. The auto profit margin fell…

Helmerich & Payne has been named as a Top 10 dividend paying energy stock, according to Dividend Channel, which published its weekly ”DividendRank” report. The report noted that among energy companies, HP shares displayed both attractive valuation metrics and strong profitability metrics. For example, the recent HP share price of $25.86 represents a price-to-book ratio of 0.9 and an annual dividend yield of 3.87% — by comparison, the average energy stock in Dividend Channel’s coverage universe yields 3.7% and trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.9. The report also cited the strong quarterly dividend history at Helmerich & Payne, Inc.,…

Key News Asian equities had a strong start to the week today, led higher by Japan on Berkshire Hathaway increasing their stake in several companies, South Korea, and Malaysia, though Thailand and Indonesia fell slightly. It was a big day in China’s bond market, as Treasury bonds sold off and yields rose. The 30-year government bond yield hit a three-month high of 2.12%, while the 10-year yield closed the session at 1.89% versus a February 6th low of 1.59%. Better-than-expected February economic data likely pushes a PBOC rate cut further out as CNY appreciated to 7.23 per US dollar. Q1…

What’s it’s like to be retired when a recession hits? Every good ship’s captain knows how to ride out choppy waters. He’s got a tried-and-true rulebook. Maybe it’s not in writing. Maybe it’s just in his head. But he’s certain about Rule #1: See a storm on the horizon? Sail around it. Sometimes, though, you just can’t help but take on the rough seas. Sure, a safe harbor would be nice, but you’re a skilled helmsman. You can brave what’s coming. Years of experience have conditioned you to calmly pilot your craft, no matter what turbulence throws at you. If…