Investors are stupefied by a week of whipsawing markets, with little relief in sight. The seemingly inexorable losses hurt, but it’s the infuriating uncertainty that most worries Wall Street and the C-suite. Many investors and business leaders have no idea what’s coming next — or what they should do. “The economic policy of the Trump administration is difficult to decipher through the noise of chainsaws and crashing of markets,” Forbes senior contributor and investment management expert Mike O’Sullivan writes. When so much is uncertain, investors usually take a “wait-and-see” approach to most everything, O’Sullivan says. Untradable Markets That strategy seems…

In today’s tumultuous market climate, it’s hard to know what stocks to hold. But the stocks of outstanding companies always deserve a look. Consider the members of my 30-30 Club. In baseball, the 30-30 Club includes players who hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a year. My 30-30 club is for companies that score a return on equity of 30% or more and grow profits at a 30% annual clip for five years. This year, 21 stocks made the roster, the fewest in several years. I admire all of these companies, and recommend four of the stocks.…

Fixed income markets still project a handful of interest rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee in 2025 according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Those expectations have been relatively steady despite recent market volatility. Even though short-term rate expectations have not changed much, rates on longer term bonds have increased and the FOMC may alter their plan for rates as data comes in. Already policymakers’ forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2025 are evolving. John Williams’ Policy Speech There is now the expectation from FOMC officials and other economists that slower growth and higher inflation are likely, due in,…

Speaking at a National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) dinner on April 8, President Donald Trump didn’t hold back in defending his aggressive tariff policy. Trump proudly mocked foreign leaders by saying, “These countries are calling us up, kissing my a**. They are dying to make a deal.” Classic Trump bravado. Even if you’re a MAGA die-hard, it’s important to recognize that many living overseas aren’t happy with President Trump. Global sentiment toward America appears to be shifting. Read a few opinion columns in international publications and you’ll see what I mean. In January net purchases of US equities by foreign…

Although some tariff hikes have been paused, a recession is still very much in play. Just a few days ago, I wrote that “this is the time to recession-proof our retirement holdings.” And why not? GDP estimates have tanked. So has consumer sentiment. Goldman Sachs made headlines for raising its probability of recession (from 20% to 35%). Fine, but equity analysts often get caught up in crowds. What was more striking was hearing a similar message from the debt watchers. Consider this post from Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist: In my previous post, I showed readers how to recession-proof…

In yesterday’s webinar, which you can watch here, we addressed a rumor that U.S.-listed China stocks could be delisted. In December 2020, the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act was passed to address the long-running issue of China’s law preventing the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board from accessing U.S.-listed stocks’ auditor books. While we considered the delisting a low probability because U.S. investors, rather than Chinese investors, own the U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, we converted the U.S. shares to Hong Kong shares in stocks like Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu, and Trip.com, which offer sufficient liquidity in Hong Kong. Another ~16% of the holdings…

Meet Aldi’s little cousin, one of America’s top two favorite grocers, known for its exotic-yet-affordable private label products and great customer service. The pandemic that rendered malls and department stores extinct has also changed the way consumers prefer to shop for food. As we noted here a year ago, the sprawling suburban supermarket and big box destination retailers have shifted their growth strategies by adding new stores in outdoor shopping centers with smaller footprints, a smaller selection of products, with shorter drives for shoppers. One of the leading beneficiaries of this trend in the grocery business has been Trader Joe’s,…

The price of gold continued to rally hitting another record high on Friday, as the impact of trade tariffs, fears of a recession and a weaker dollar rattled global financial markets. Many reckon further upside might be on the horizon. At 10:45 a.m. EDT on Friday, traders stateside saw the COMEX Gold June contract up 2.18% or $69.20 to $3,246.70 per troy ounce — a record high. Meanwhile, gold spot trading in Dubai saw highs of its own with the yellow metal changing hands at $3,228, up 1.66% or $52.64. Courtesy of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve…

The Market’s Wild Ride Over the last few trading days, the stock market has delivered a masterclass in volatility: April 2nd: President Trump announced a universal 10% tariff on imports and sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The S&P 500 dropped more than 12% over four trading days. April 9th: Trump declared a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (excluding China). The market rebounded an astonishing 9.5% in a single day—a one-day move roughly equivalent to the market’s average annual return of about 10%. April 10th: Investors again panicked, sending the market down over 5% intraday, ultimately closing down 3.5%. If you’re feeling…

“Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,” Blackrock CEO Larry Fink explained at an event for the Economic Club of New York on April 7. “I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome, because markets, I mean, when you see a 2000-point decline [in the Dow Jones Industrial Average], it sort of feeds on itself, doesn’t it,” Jamie Dimon said on Fox Business’ “Mornings With Maria” show on April 9. “It makes you feel like you’re losing money in your 401(k), you’re losing money in your pension. You’ve got to cut…