I believe the U.S. economy is at a precarious crossroads. Growth is slowing faster than expected, inflation remains stubbornly high, and fiscal imbalances are becoming harder to ignore. For investors, policymakers, and households alike, this moment demands sharp focus and decisive action. The risks of stagflation—a toxic combination of rising unemployment and persistent inflation—are no longer theoretical. They’re knocking at the door. Let’s break down the key challenges shaping this precarious moment and what they mean for the road ahead. Growth Is Losing Momentum – Fast The February Personal Consumption Expenditures report delivered a sobering reality check: U.S. economic growth…

In trading on Tuesday, shares of Pfizer were yielding above the 7% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $1.72), with the stock changing hands as low as $24.57 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market’s total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) back on 12/31/1999 — you would have paid $146.88 per share. Fast forward to 12/31/2012 and each share was worth $142.41 on that date, a decrease of $4.67/share over all…

It’s been two years since the hyperinflation of 2021 to 2023 subsided, yet consumers still perceive a crisis. What’s wrong with this picture? The incredible edible egg has emerged as the latest reminder of the evils of inflation. The average price of a dozen Grade A Large eggs, which five years ago was $1.45, hit a record this February of $5.90, according to Federal Reserve data. Attributed to a bird flu outbreak, the spike is an anomaly in what has been, until recently, an upbeat economy. The latest annual inflation rate reported by the Fed was 2.8%, not that far…

Fixed income markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to hold interest rates steady on May 7. That’s because inflation is “somewhat elevated” and the job market appears “solid” as stated in the FOMC’s March statement. Based on this reading of the economy, FOMC officials have shown patience in approaching further rate cuts. However, there is considerable economic uncertainty and survey data has become more pessimistic due, in part, to current and expected tariffs. Markets and policymakers both see interest rates moving lower later in 2025, but the extent of any interest rate cuts remains in question. The Fed’s Next…

Key News Asian equities rebounded on light volumes following yesterday’s steep sell-off. One media outlet called yesterday “Black Monday” after the US’ 1929 market crash. Meanwhile, Taiwan and South Korea were both up nearly +3%, India and Singapore underperformed, and Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan all continued to be closed for Eid al-Fitr. Hong Kong and Mainland China posted small gains though off intra-day highs as the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hang Seng, and Hang Seng Tech indexes have all eased back to the February levels. An astonishing 49% of Hong Kong turnover was driven by Southbound Stock Connect trading as Mainland investors…

Interest rates are trending lower, which means real estate investment trusts (REITs) are rallying. These “bond proxies” tend to move alongside bonds and opposite rates. If you believe the economy is likely to continue slowing, then select REITs are intriguing income plays here. Especially those yielding between 7.2% and 13.2%, which we’ll discuss shortly. As I’ve been saying for a few weeks, the real story is in longer rates, namely the 10-year Treasury. To recap, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been upfront that he and President Trump are focused on the 10-year Treasury rate (the “long” end of the yield…

In our Thursday article, we talked about a “quiet shift” in the markets, from growth stocks to value—and we named 2 CEFs yielding 9%+ that are primed to profit from it. Yes, the recent jump in volatility is a big reason for that. So today, we’re going to look at another side of the rotation we’re seeing—a shift from passive investing to active. Index Funds Are so 2023 As we move further into 2025, it’s getting clearer to me that we’re into a stock-picker’s market. Sitting in an index fund just won’t cut it. That said, at my CEF Insider…

On March 17, the Census Bureau released results for retail sales in the month of February. These numbers are particularly useful because they help tell the story about what consumers are spending on vs. where they are penny pinching as well as what they prize on the budgetary front. It is also key to bear in mind that potential for tariffs, uncertainty around inflation, and a holiday spending hangover are part of the equation heading into the month. Let’s take a look. Total sales eked up to $722.7 billion from $721.3 billion in the month. Although a higher number often…

Mining stocks are stepping out of gold’s shadow. After years of lagging the metal they mine, gold miners are starting to outperform. The GDX Index — a benchmark index for the sector — is up roughly 28% this year, compared to a 19% gain for gold itself. The shift comes as gold spot prices hit a record $3,142 per ounce, setting the stage for earnings upgrades and a shift in sentiment. “Gold miners offer operational leverage to gold price upside, potential growth and dividend yields,” wrote UBS analyst Daniel Major in a recent note to clients. Still, miners’ leverage hasn’t…

Key News Asian equities were lower overnight as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were down more than -3% ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day,” while India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Singapore were closed for Eid al-Fitr, an Islamic holiday marking the end of Ramadan. Hong Kong and Mainland China were down but by less than 1%. The Hang Seng and Shanghai benefited from the strong performance of banks following the Ministry of Finance’s announcement over the weekend that the proceeds from the issuance of a Special Government Bond, totaling RMB 500 billion, will be used to raise the Tier…