Portfolio managers investing in non-U.S. stocks have been trying to get investors’ attention for years, pointing out that valuation multiples overseas have grown much cheaper than stocks in the U.S. since the Financial Crisis, and this year their patience has finally been rewarded. The MSCI EAFE index, covering stocks in 21 developed markets excluding the U.S. and Canada, is up 7% this year, significantly outperforming the 7% decline for the S&P 500 index in the U.S. It represents a small dent in the decades-long disparity between the two—JPMorgan reports that from the second half of 2008 through the end of…

On a recent visit, there was little of the hand-wringing and doomsaying expressed by many U.S. retailers. Are Americans overreacting? On a recent business trip to the U.K. and Eurozone, I was struck by the apparent nonchalance of retail industry executives there about the U.S. tariff crisis when, here at home, the headlines have been reporting the story in near-apocalyptic terms. Is Europe somehow insulated from the fallout, or is there something else going on that we Americans are missing? Here at home, Wall Street forecasters are signaling the likelihood of a recession, economists are predicting a new round of…

TAL Education Q1 Earnings Overview Online education company TAL Education missed on the big three (revenue, net income, and earnings per share), despite top-line revenue growth increasing by +42% year-over-year, as selling, marketing, administrative expenses increased to $336 million from $24 million YoY, which weighed on bottom line net income and EPS. The company only used $13.1mm of its $490.7mm share repurchase program, which is strange to me. Thus far, no analyst has asked management about relisting in Hong Kong. I will provide a Hong Kong relisting update via Twitter (@ahern_brendan). Revenue increased +42% to $610 million from $429 million,…

The first graph below is that of the monthly cycle of oil. Note that it falls through 2025. When this graph was first generated in the autumn of 2024, I thought that it projected the effect of the new administration’s efforts to increase energy production. Thus far, this appears to be the case. Chart 1: Monthly Oil Cycle The price action of the last few months has been instructive in confirming the bearish view. The next chart is a histogram of the monthly expected return of oil. The seasonal strong period has not lifted the price. Oil quotes have fallen…

For the past 16 years, the world has piled into a “long U.S.” trade. American stocks, bought with dollars, have propped up investment portfolios around the globe since the Great Financial Crisis. From March 2009 to early 2025, the S&P 500 soared by 600%—that’s seven times! Why would anyone own anything else when SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was sizzling? But bulls don’t run forever. Last summer, we contrarians discussed a potential inflection point for SPY—the likelihood that the index’s best gains were behind it. And here we are. A global trade war has triggered a flight from SPY.…

The White House is exploring a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially lowering the current 145% rate to a range of 50% to 65%, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. The administration is also considering a tiered approach, applying 35% levies on non-strategic goods and up to 100% on items deemed critical to national security. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at a closed-door JPMorgan investor summit, emphasized that the current tariff levels are unsustainable and anticipated a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, though formal negotiations with Beijing have yet to begin, per Yahoo Finance. This development…

Key News Asian equities had a strong day following Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on getting a deal done with China and President Trump’s comments on not firing Fed Chair Powell and his willingness to do a deal with the Chinese government. There is likely a significant delegation from China attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Washington, DC, this week, though the attendees have not been announced. Trump’s positive comments on tariffs and doing a deal followed his meetings yesterday with the CEOs of retail giants Walmart, Home Depot, and Target. The tariff tsunami is on…

Despite a forward P/E of 83.1x, Tesla’s high valuation, mixed analyst sentiment, and insider selling suggest holding current positions until margin clarity and demand stabilization materialize By Nabeel Bukhari Summary Tesla is investing $5B in AI, including the development of the Cortex AI training cluster, but heavy spending may limit short-term profitability and margin improvements in 2025. The company aims to deploy 10,000 Optimus humanoid robots by 2025, while energy storage efforts like Megapack are expected to grow by 50% in 2025, despite supply chain constraints. Cash reserves reached $37B, with retained earnings growing 26% year-over-year in 2024, but higher…

Trade war volatility rages on—and we contrarians are playing offense and defense with a “homegrown” stock whose dividend has skyrocketed in the last five years. This unsung stock soared double-digits in the 2022 mess—and it’s doing so again. More on that history in a second. First, that skyrocketing dividend is the key to our “offense” here. That’s because dividend growth is the No. 1 predictor of stock gains—and a rising payout is the ultimate “magnet,” pulling share prices higher as it grows. And this company’s stock has fallen well behind its payout growth, handing us a “sweet” (hint!) current yield…

Let’s take a clear-eyed look at where we stand. The U.S. economy is walking a tightrope. Short-term panic is nearing historic levels, yet beneath the daily whipsawing headlines lies something more structural, and more ominous. For investors, it’s a rare moment where tactical opportunities exist, but the case for strategic defense has never been stronger. In just a week, we saw 10-year Treasury yields surge 0.5%, the dollar fall 3%, and the S&P 500 shed 7%. That’s a rare trifecta: synchronized selling in bonds, the dollar, and equities. It’s only happened during the worst stress events of the past 25…