Most indicators are misleading investors right now, with some looking rosy and others seemingly saying it’s time to panic. So today we’re going to parse through the noise and look at what’s really going on under the hood of the US economy. Then I’m going to give you our latest “CEF Insider intel” on what to do with stocks—and funds (specifically closed-end funds) that hold them. We’re also going to dig into one bond fund yielding an outsized 13% that’s set to benefit as uncertainty grows. Investor “Mood Ring” Says It’s Time to Panic … Consider the CNN Fear &…

Last week, I spoke with an investor who said, “I heard you’re supposed to have international investments in your portfolio, but the United States investments are just so much stronger performers, so I got rid of all my international stocks.” Many people all over the world have what’s referred to as home bias, where a disproportionately high amount of their stock portfolio is in their home country. In the United States, this can often result in their portfolio containing 100% stocks from U.S. companies. Recent history is not an indication of future returns and international investments can add diversification to…

Jeffrey Garten’s “Three Days at Camp David” is a riveting, character-driven account of the 1971 meeting where President Richard Nixon severed the dollar’s link to gold, upending the global monetary system—a must-read for anyone interested in how bold economic decisions shape history. Fast forward to 2025, and we may be witnessing an equally transformative moment. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and the Senate’s proposed tax bill are poised to rewrite the rules of international trade and fiscal policy in ways that could rival Nixon’s bold gambit. Here’s why these actions are more than just political theater—they’re a revolution in…

Key News Mainland China and Hong Kong markets were closed overnight to celebrate the Ching Ming Festival (“Tomb Sweeping Day”). This is the day when Chinese families visit the tombs of their ancestors to clean the gravesites and make offerings. It is important to note that with China’s markets closed overnight, the natural buyers were absent from the markets, which is leading to a steep selloff in US-listed shares. US-listed stocks and ETFs are being priced lower due to the market closure in Hong Kong. Typically, we don’t publish our daily notes when China’s markets are closed, but given today’s…

U.S. recession risks have risen sharply with the announcement of new tariffs. The chance of a U.S. recession is estimated at 56% by Polymarket and 60% by Kalshi, both relatively liquid prediction markets. Stock markets have also fallen with the S&P 500 currently 9% lower since the announcement of tariffs. That’s in addition to a weak start to 2025. Fed Sees Slower Growth Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, “While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which…

Bank OZK has been named as a Top 10 dividend-paying financial stock, according to Dividend Channel, which published its most recent ‘’DividendRank” report. The report noted that among shares of financial companies, OZK displayed both attractive valuation metrics and strong profitability metrics. For example, the recent OZK share price of $38.90 represents a price-to-book ratio of 0.8 and an annual dividend yield of 4.42% — by comparison, the average stock in Dividend Channel’s coverage universe yields 4.2% and trades at a price-to-book ratio of 2.3. The report also cited the strong quarterly dividend history at Bank OZK, and favorable long-term…

The U.S. equity market has been difficult so far in 2025. After the sharp drop this Thursday, the S&P 500 was down nearly 8% YTD and 12% off all-time highs due to fears on stagflation and worries over the Trump Administration’s newest tariff policies. Interestingly, this is against a backdrop of expected sales and earnings growth for the rest of the year in U.S. stocks. Figure 1 below shows the consensus Q1 and 2025 estimates for large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks. All are expected to record good earnings growth for the full year of +7-8%. For the Q1 2025, small-cap…

We discuss the delicate balancing act between minimizing taxes whilst maximizing wealth with Jim Davis, senior wealth advisor at Aspen Wealth Management based in Fort Worth, Texas. Light: Investors are always looking for ways to minimize their tax burden, but there’s a fine line between tax efficiency and maximizing overall wealth. Can you start by explaining why investors shouldn’t focus solely on tax minimization? Davis: The only way to legally pay zero taxes is to make zero income—and, of course, that’s not exactly a desirable strategy for most people. So, investors should focus on maximizing their after-tax wealth instead of…

A new Forbes survey of Wall Street heavyweights shows many who supported Trump’s economic promises have abandoned him – and a vast majority disapprove of the President’s economic policies. More than two months into Donald Trump’s term, with details of his “Liberation Day” regimen revealed this week, Forbes reached out to 50 top Wall Street leaders, including billionaire investors, major institutional asset managers and the nation’s largest wealth advisors, to gauge their support for the president’s economic strategies. The 50 respondents, chosen for their outsized influence, reinforced the recent market tumult. Among these Wall Street heavyweights – more than half…

President Donald Trump formally declared “Tariff Liberation Day” this week—and with it, a seismic shift in U.S. trade policy. The newly signed Executive Order, issued April 2, 2025, imposes a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, with elevated country-specific duties—34% for China, 46% for Vietnam, 24% for Japan and 20% for the European Union. The justification? Persistent trade imbalances that, in the President’s view, pose an “extraordinary threat” to America’s national and economic security. While the stated goal is to level the playing field and reignite domestic manufacturing, I’d be remiss not to acknowledge the risks. Tariffs are, after all,…