If the April lows hold, the S&P 500 will clock a 19% peak to trough drop on the tariff news. The drawdown could have been worse—if the bond market had not broken! President Trump was initially resolute in the face of a declining stock market. Wall Street was desperately, unsuccessfully searching for a “Trump Put”—a save from the decline by the White House. Trump, however, likened the levies to a necessary remedy: “Sometimes you have to take medicine.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, must have silenced his phone for a few weeks while his old Wall Street contacts texted and…

In the age of digital everything, the Rolex brand of mechanical watches keeps on ticking. What’s the secret to its success? A 2020 episode of the PBS television series “Antiques Roadshow” featured an Air Force veteran learning that the Rolex watch he’d bought nearly 50 years earlier for $345.95 was a rare model, estimated to be worth as much as $700,000. The shocked veteran playfully pretended to faint and a video of the segment went viral, collecting 16 million views to date. The watch in question was made in 1971, an Oyster model descended from the world’s first waterproof wristwatch,…

In trading on Thursday, shares of United Parcel Service were yielding above the 7% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $6.56), with the stock changing hands as low as $93.57 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market’s total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) back on 12/31/1999 — you would have paid $146.88 per share. Fast forward to 12/31/2012 and each share was worth $142.41 on that date, a decrease of $4.67/share…

So far in this trade war, there is one “winner” left on the board: gold. The barbarous relic has glittered amidst the financial carnage. And while everyone is climbing aboard now, we contrarians see a better buy window ahead. Below, we’ll “dig into” 4 tickers to get ready, ranked from worst to first (hint: our top play has a dividend that soars with gold prices). Before we get to that, though, let’s look at what’s really going on here—starting with Treasuries. Yields on the 10-year spiked from sub-4% to 4.5% in a matter of days at the height of the…

In trading on Thursday, shares of Microsoft crossed above their 200 day moving average of $414.40, changing hands as high as $436.99 per share. Microsoft shares are currently trading up about 9.6% on the day. 10 Stocks Crossing Above Their 200 Day Moving Average » The chart below shows the one year performance of MSFT shares, versus its 200 day moving average: Looking at the chart above, MSFT’s low point in its 52 week range is $344.79 per share, with $468.35 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $433.12. The MSFT DMA information…

The Federal Open Market Committee will next announce interest rates on May 7 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Fixed income markets firmly expect short-term interest rates to remain in their current band of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, it is also likely that interest rates could then be cut at the subsequent FOMC decision on June 18, so fixed income markets will be watching for hints of that. If so, that may come either through the statement or the press conference. The current expectation is for interest rates to move moderately lower in 2025. However, the economy’s reaction to tariffs creates…

April 2025 emerged as a pivotal moment for financial markets, fundamentally reshaping how investors perceive and manage portfolio risk. Marked by unprecedented policy shifts, soaring volatility, and a rare synchronized plunge in stocks and bonds, the month rivaled the chaos of the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. From a historic VIX spike to gold’s unexpected resilience, these events exposed vulnerabilities in traditional diversification strategies and hinted at a potential secular shift in global markets. Here’s a detailed look at what unfolded, why it mattered, and how it redefined risk for investors moving forward. Liberation Day Ignites…

I was recently speaking with an investor who is retiring in the United States but worked for many years in England. She has as an array of both investment accounts and retirement accounts abroad. The investor wanted to know what she should be doing if she plans to continue to live in the United States but plans to travel throughout Europe during her retirement years. She’s not alone in this. Many investors move to the United States with assets abroad and are unsure of how to incorporate those assets into their financial plan. As with anything, the answer depends on…

I originally put Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) in the Danger Zone on October 8, 2021 prior to its IPO. Since the company’s IPO, it has outperformed as a short. Despite the outperformance as a short, this stock remains dangerous. After analyzing GitLab’s fiscal year 2025 10-K, my short thesis still stands. The company is dwarfed by its competition, remains unprofitable, and its stock price is too expensive and offers much more downside risk than upside potential. GitLab’s stock could fall further based on: the inability to convert free users into paying ones, slowing recurring revenue growth from its paying customer base,…

Key News Asian equities were mixed but mostly higher overnight as Thailand and the Philippines outperformed while Pakistan and Korea underperformed. Hong Kong and Shenzhen saw gains, while Shanghai was slightly lower. Tariffs are beginning to bite in the U.S. economy, as GDP for the first quarter, reported Wednesday morning, declined by -0.3% year-over-year while jobs growth slowed. This is weighing on U.S. markets more than export slowdowns are weighing on China’s markets. China released trade data overnight showing a slowdown in manufacturing growth in April compared to March, when orders were front-loaded ahead of tariffs. While headlines are screaming…