Although some tariff hikes have been paused, a recession is still very much in play. Just a few days ago, I wrote that “this is the time to recession-proof our retirement holdings.” And why not? GDP estimates have tanked. So has consumer sentiment. Goldman Sachs made headlines for raising its probability of recession (from 20% to 35%). Fine, but equity analysts often get caught up in crowds. What was more striking was hearing a similar message from the debt watchers. Consider this post from Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist: In my previous post, I showed readers how to recession-proof…

In yesterday’s webinar, which you can watch here, we addressed a rumor that U.S.-listed China stocks could be delisted. In December 2020, the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act was passed to address the long-running issue of China’s law preventing the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board from accessing U.S.-listed stocks’ auditor books. While we considered the delisting a low probability because U.S. investors, rather than Chinese investors, own the U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, we converted the U.S. shares to Hong Kong shares in stocks like Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu, and Trip.com, which offer sufficient liquidity in Hong Kong. Another ~16% of the holdings…

Meet Aldi’s little cousin, one of America’s top two favorite grocers, known for its exotic-yet-affordable private label products and great customer service. The pandemic that rendered malls and department stores extinct has also changed the way consumers prefer to shop for food. As we noted here a year ago, the sprawling suburban supermarket and big box destination retailers have shifted their growth strategies by adding new stores in outdoor shopping centers with smaller footprints, a smaller selection of products, with shorter drives for shoppers. One of the leading beneficiaries of this trend in the grocery business has been Trader Joe’s,…

The price of gold continued to rally hitting another record high on Friday, as the impact of trade tariffs, fears of a recession and a weaker dollar rattled global financial markets. Many reckon further upside might be on the horizon. At 10:45 a.m. EDT on Friday, traders stateside saw the COMEX Gold June contract up 2.18% or $69.20 to $3,246.70 per troy ounce — a record high. Meanwhile, gold spot trading in Dubai saw highs of its own with the yellow metal changing hands at $3,228, up 1.66% or $52.64. Courtesy of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve…

The Market’s Wild Ride Over the last few trading days, the stock market has delivered a masterclass in volatility: April 2nd: President Trump announced a universal 10% tariff on imports and sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The S&P 500 dropped more than 12% over four trading days. April 9th: Trump declared a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (excluding China). The market rebounded an astonishing 9.5% in a single day—a one-day move roughly equivalent to the market’s average annual return of about 10%. April 10th: Investors again panicked, sending the market down over 5% intraday, ultimately closing down 3.5%. If you’re feeling…

“Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,” Blackrock CEO Larry Fink explained at an event for the Economic Club of New York on April 7. “I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome, because markets, I mean, when you see a 2000-point decline [in the Dow Jones Industrial Average], it sort of feeds on itself, doesn’t it,” Jamie Dimon said on Fox Business’ “Mornings With Maria” show on April 9. “It makes you feel like you’re losing money in your 401(k), you’re losing money in your pension. You’ve got to cut…

By the time Marco Polo journeyed along the Silk Road connecting China and India to Europe in the 13th century, ancient civilizations had already been trading goods ranging from silk, tea, cinnamon and rice to honey and horses for a thousand years. Globalization, even in ancient times, opened civilizations to new products, ideas and technologies, generally improving standards of living worldwide. President Trump’s tariff plan appears determined to turn back the clock, and nowhere does his plan defy common sense more than with those same spices that Marco Polo and countless others in the ancient world journeyed for years to…

“Americans prepping for retirement aren’t watching the markets,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday. Scotty, please. At least try to pretend you have some connection with reality. Sure, we income investors have it better than most hopeful and current retirees. We do not rely on stock prices for income, per se. Our dividend portfolios provide us with cash flow that we use to pay our bills. Imagine living by the “4% withdrawal rule” right now, selling 4% of our stocks every year, hoping we don’t run out of money—while the S&P 500 is dropping 4% every day as Wall…

European automakers and suppliers are under pressure as traditional markets fade and new technology threatens. But instead of workers finding themselves on the dole, they are in demand as defense industries take up the slack. President Donald Trump’s tariffs aren’t helping the auto business either but his demand that Europeans finally face up to their NATO spending commitments is providing a serendipitous lifeline for engineering workers losing jobs at mainly German companies like Volkswagen and suppliers like Continental and Bosch. The defense industry is coming to the rescue, according to Berenberg Bank. “We estimate that the European defense industry may…

Key News Asian equity markets had a very strong day after President Donald Trump hit the pause button on tariff implementation, except for Mainland China, with a near double-digit return in Japan and Taiwan. However, India missed out on the fun due to a market holiday for Mahavir Jayanti, a festive in Jainism celebrating the birth of Lord Mahavira. The crack in the tariff façade, driven by the U.S. Treasury 10-Year yield hitting 5% Tuesday night, fueled Hong Kong and Mainland China’s broad beta rally, led by growth stocks, as advancers outpaced decliners significantly on high volumes. It it great…