The leading bearish signs were right: The stock market is at risk of a major selloff. What to do now? Raise cash reserves for future opportunities. However, do not expect the good times to return soon. Why not? Because it takes time for widespread optimism to wash out. In spite of the reality weakening over the past weeks, bullishness remained the driving force. So, why the sudden change? Because the multiple uncertainties and negatives have finally begun to dent investors’ optimism. WSJ reveals this change of heart today (Mar. 10): Front page (A-1): “Wary Investors Play Defense In Switch to…

In trading on Monday, shares of Simon Property Group were yielding above the 5% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $8.4), with the stock changing hands as low as $165.02 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market’s total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) back on 12/31/1999 — you would have paid $146.88 per share. Fast forward to 12/31/2012 and each share was worth $142.41 on that date, a decrease of $4.67/share…

Updated, March 10, 2025: This post has been adjusted to correct the spelling of UAW President Shawn Fain’s name. In Sunday’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” UAW President Shawn Fain came out in support of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Why would a labor president of the sixth largest union in America, one that typically favors Democrats over Republicans, come out on a major network in support of the president’s policies? Here’s why. Fain’s Comments On Trump’s Tariffs and Trade Fain was asked why he supports Trump’s tariffs. Here’s what he said. “We’re in a crisis mode in this…

The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to cut interest rates at the conclusion of their next meeting on March 19 according to fixed income markets. The key thing to watch for may be clues on the likelihood of a May interest rate cut. Currently, markets view a May cut as less likely, but possible. Statements from FOMC policymakers at the March meeting could move those expectations materially. Slim Chance Of Interest Rate Cut On March 19 Markets currently give just a 3% chance of lower short-term interest rates at the conclusion of the FOMC’s next meeting on March…

Key News Asian equities were mixed but mostly lower overnight as the Philippines and Japan outperformed while Thailand and Hong Kong underperformed. Both Hong Kong and Mainland China underperformed the region and lost some of their strong gains from last week. However, Mainland investors bought the dip in Hong Kong intensively, pouring nearly $4 billion into Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs on the weakness. There was also a significant rotation into value from growth stocks, continuing what was happening on Friday. However, health care held up better than most growth sectors. China’s February inflation reading of -0.7% dinted confidence in…

Company insiders are ditching their own stock more than usual. An exception is oil and gas executives, some of whom are buying while their shares are depressed. To gauge insider sentiment, look at the ratio of buys to sells by top executives and large shareholders. According to Gurufocus.com, about 34% of insiders’ transactions normally are buys. In February the figure was only 24%. During the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, when stock prices dived, insiders stepped up to the plate and bought shares at an above-normal clip five months in a row. Insiders also bought a lot of…

The last posting on March 6th analyzed the prospects for four of the Magnificent Seven or the “Fab” Seven as some commentators have renamed the group. Let us apply the same approach to Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Tesla. (I added Netflix in the first posting, so we are analyzing the big eight.) The overall stock market is projected to be in a trading range this year. Cycles will be a useful guide in trading the tech heavyweights in 2025. As we can see below, the Amazon cycle bottoms now. This cycle is synchronized with the Amazon seasonal cycle. From…

Financial market volatility soared last week as new tariffs for Canada, Mexico, and China went into effect, and investors reacted to a potential slowdown in the U.S. from growing economic uncertainty. European developments added to the volatility as announcements for additional fiscal spending sent shivers through the bond market but provided optimism for equity investors in certain sectors. Winners were European defense stocks, international equities, and U.S. dividend payers. Losers were non-U.S. bonds, the consumer discretionary sector, and momentum stocks. Let’s examine each of these moves in more detail. European Defense Stocks Rally President Donald Trump’s recent policies—such as suspending…

In today’s broadcast of This Week with George Stephanopoulos, UAW President Sean Fain came out in support of President Trump’s tariffs. Why would a labor president of the sixth largest union in America, one that typically favors Democrats over Republicans, come out on a major network in support of the president’s policies? Here’s why. Fain’s Comments on Trump’s Tariffs and Trade Fain was asked why he supports Trump’s tariffs. Here’s what he said. “We’re in a crisis mode in this country. There is no single issue in this country that has affected our economy and working class people and their…

If Trump 2.0 rhymes with Trump 1.0, then this is an intriguing time to consider small cap dividends. Let me explain—and then we’ll highlight a handful of 11.1% to 12.6% dividend stocks. In 2016, smaller companies popped for weeks amid largely sentiment over what President Donald Trump’s election would mean for the market broadly and small caps specifically. But that sentiment-related pop eventually turned into years of underperformance as theory became reality—and unfavorable conditions forced investors to stop betting on small caps as a group, and instead separate winners and losers. Fast-forward to Trump 2.0. I wrote in December that…