For the past 16 years, the world has piled into a “long U.S.” trade. American stocks, bought with dollars, have propped up investment portfolios around the globe since the Great Financial Crisis. From March 2009 to early 2025, the S&P 500 soared by 600%—that’s seven times! Why would anyone own anything else when SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was sizzling? But bulls don’t run forever. Last summer, we contrarians discussed a potential inflection point for SPY—the likelihood that the index’s best gains were behind it. And here we are. A global trade war has triggered a flight from SPY.…

The White House is exploring a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially lowering the current 145% rate to a range of 50% to 65%, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. The administration is also considering a tiered approach, applying 35% levies on non-strategic goods and up to 100% on items deemed critical to national security. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at a closed-door JPMorgan investor summit, emphasized that the current tariff levels are unsustainable and anticipated a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, though formal negotiations with Beijing have yet to begin, per Yahoo Finance. This development…

Key News Asian equities had a strong day following Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on getting a deal done with China and President Trump’s comments on not firing Fed Chair Powell and his willingness to do a deal with the Chinese government. There is likely a significant delegation from China attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Washington, DC, this week, though the attendees have not been announced. Trump’s positive comments on tariffs and doing a deal followed his meetings yesterday with the CEOs of retail giants Walmart, Home Depot, and Target. The tariff tsunami is on…

Despite a forward P/E of 83.1x, Tesla’s high valuation, mixed analyst sentiment, and insider selling suggest holding current positions until margin clarity and demand stabilization materialize By Nabeel Bukhari Summary Tesla is investing $5B in AI, including the development of the Cortex AI training cluster, but heavy spending may limit short-term profitability and margin improvements in 2025. The company aims to deploy 10,000 Optimus humanoid robots by 2025, while energy storage efforts like Megapack are expected to grow by 50% in 2025, despite supply chain constraints. Cash reserves reached $37B, with retained earnings growing 26% year-over-year in 2024, but higher…

Trade war volatility rages on—and we contrarians are playing offense and defense with a “homegrown” stock whose dividend has skyrocketed in the last five years. This unsung stock soared double-digits in the 2022 mess—and it’s doing so again. More on that history in a second. First, that skyrocketing dividend is the key to our “offense” here. That’s because dividend growth is the No. 1 predictor of stock gains—and a rising payout is the ultimate “magnet,” pulling share prices higher as it grows. And this company’s stock has fallen well behind its payout growth, handing us a “sweet” (hint!) current yield…

Let’s take a clear-eyed look at where we stand. The U.S. economy is walking a tightrope. Short-term panic is nearing historic levels, yet beneath the daily whipsawing headlines lies something more structural, and more ominous. For investors, it’s a rare moment where tactical opportunities exist, but the case for strategic defense has never been stronger. In just a week, we saw 10-year Treasury yields surge 0.5%, the dollar fall 3%, and the S&P 500 shed 7%. That’s a rare trifecta: synchronized selling in bonds, the dollar, and equities. It’s only happened during the worst stress events of the past 25…

As we wrap up tax season, I’m reminded of a mistake I’ve seen multiple people fall victim to: incorrect reporting of cost basis. Cost basis is the adjusted value of the security when you originally acquired it. Basically, it’s the money you’ve likely already paid taxes on. Occasionally, when assets transfer from one institution to another, something might get lost in translation. When this happens, financial institutions often default to a cost basis of $0. Some investors may view this as a minor thing, but when the financial institution reports your sales of securities to the IRS, the entire amount…

As the market continues to rollercoaster, Tesla (TSLA) would likely love to get off the ride. The company has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, and its stock is down 38% year-to-date (YTD) and 48% from its 52-week high. The near halving in stock price might have investors wondering, is now the time to scoop up shares on the cheap? No. And, I show below, I do not see an honest argument for owning the stock above $50/share. Tesla lost its first-mover advantage, its profitability and market share are in decline, and there’s no straight-faced argument that…

Key News Asian equities were mixed despite a stronger U.S. dollar overnight, gold surging, and yesterday’s U.S. equity downdraft, as Taiwan underperformed. The Yen was resilient, giving some validation to today’s Financial Times article on Japanese institutions selling U.S. Treasuries, though it is hard to say for sure. The U.S. dollar’s decline, stock market decline, and asset flow out of the U.S. were topics in Chinese media, though likely being repeated globally. The positions of star active fund managers, revealing their positions, garnered attention on a light economic data and policy day. One manager’s top positions were revealed as Tencent,…

President Trump has made critical comments about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s performance in recent weeks. Trump wrote that, “there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.” Trump made these comments on social media on April 21. Although Powell’s term does not end until May 2026 and Powell was originally appointed by Trump, prediction markets see around a 20% to 25% chance that Powell is removed this year according to Polymarket and Kalshi. Waiting For Economic Data Trump wants lower interest rates immediately. Powell, and perhaps most policymakers on…