On March 19, 2025, the Federal Reserve opted to keep its target for the Federal Funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The FOMC Statement began… Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both…

When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stepped up to the podium during the FOMC’s March meeting, he delivered a line that captured the moment: “I don’t know anyone who is confident of their forecast.” It’s a rare admission from the Fed chief, and it perfectly reflects the seismic shift rocking the financial world. Just two months into President Donald Trump’s second term, investor focus has swung dramatically from the Fed’s playbook to the whirlwind of government policy coming out of Washington. For years, the Fed was the North Star for markets—every rate tweak or hint of tightening sent Wall Street…

Week in Review Asian equities were mixed for the week as the US recession fears gripped the region. India and Korea outperformed with gains, while Hong Kong and Indonesia underperformed. The Central Committee and State Council released an “Action Plan for Boosting Consumption” on Monday, which includes support for both real estate and stocks. Industrial production and retail sales data for the first two months of the year, released this week, indicated stronger-than-expected year-over-year growth, likely delaying rate cuts from China’s central bank. Tencent, Meituan, and PDD all reported earnings this week. Tencent and Meituan beat expectations, while PDD missed…

Tariffs have been a hot topic since President Trump started his second term, and many investors are worried about the long-term consequences. On the surface it’s a simple idea, if we tax foreign imports, we will strengthen our own industries by creating more jobs and generating more cash. But, it doesn’t always work so simply. When president Trump instituted tariffs on foreign steel in order to protect U.S. blue collar jobs in 2018, researchers estimate U.S steel producers added about 1,000 new jobs. However, the knock-on effects, namely input costs for U.S. industries that use steel, resulted in an estimated…

Is a recession looming? That’s the question on the minds of many Americans. To find out, let’s turn to Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, spoke to the nation yesterday to announce that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided not to change its benchmark federal funds rate, leaving it at 4.25% to 4.50%. Powell also provided a detailed assessment of the condition of the U.S. economy, including tariffs, employment, inflation, and other relevant factors. Many Americans have been wondering if the U.S. is headed for a recession? Let’s examine this issue. Condition of U.S.…

One of the biggest losers from the Mag 7 during earnings season was Nvidia (NVDA). I called a top for NVDA back in August 2024 and am not surprised to see it fall precipitously after reporting excellent earnings. The narrative that valuation does not matter is being disproved before our very eyes – along with many other false narratives that have plagued our society. If you’ve been following my reports on the company’s stock, you would know that the recent drop in price is still not nearly enough to make the stock attractive. NVDA is not alone. Crowded trades and…

PDD Q4 Earnings Overview E-commerce company PDD Holdings (PDD US) reported Q4 results before the US open. The company is not the most communicative, as the founder’s engineering background means he focuses solely on the business. For instance, the company doesn’t break out revenues from domestic China e-commerce from its Temu global e-commerce. The lack of communication has sometimes created volatility for shareholders. On today’s analyst conference call, the company, when asked by an analyst about competition in e-commerce, noted that competition pushes the company to keep investing in technology. When asked indirectly about changing US import shipping laws, the…

Bloomsbury Publishing – best known for the Harry Potter book franchise – saw its share price soar on Thursday after it upgraded sales and earnings forecasts for the full year. At 645p per share, Bloomsbury was up 7.6%, making it the fourth-biggest riser on the FTSE 250. The publisher said that “a strong performance in the second half” of the financial year to February 2025 meant trading came in ahead of expectations. Bloomsbury also said that strong sales and cash generation last year “has enabled us to pay down $7.5 million of the $37 million debt associated with the acquisition…

After two consecutive years of stock market returns exceeding 20 percent, many investors are contemplating pulling back their equity exposure amid political uncertainty, global tariffs, and broader economic concerns. The temptation to time the market—to step aside until the volatility passes and re-enter at a more opportune moment—can be strong. But history and data suggest that market timing is more likely to hurt than help. The best course of action? Stay invested, but stay smart. The Cost of Missing the Best Days Market timing is appealing in theory but nearly impossible to execute successfully. Investors need to correctly predict not…

Gold’s rise to new all-time highs has been a long time coming. Over the past few years, we’ve examined gold’s role as both a strategic asset and a hedge against economic instability. In pieces like Gold Can’t Be Downgraded and It’s No One’s Liability and The Gold Investing Madness is just Getting Started, we’ve highlighted the importance of maximizing gold exposure in portfolios. This stance was reinforced by the breakout of gold from its four-year range to reach new all-time highs above $2,200 per ounce in March 2024. Today, with gold knocking on the $3,000 door, the forces driving this…