In the past decade, Japan has risen in the ranks of independent watchmakers. Japanese artisans are now producing timepieces that can rival elite manufacturers from Switzerland. However, unlike the Swiss juggernauts such as Rolex, these independents operate in small workshops, often crafting only a handful of watches each year. What has brought them worldwide acclaim is an obsessive dedication to detail, design rooted in tradition, and innovation that defies their scale. Three names in particular keep popping up in watch forums and industry journals: Naoya Hida, Hajime Asaoka, and Masahiro Kikuno. These watchmakers have elevated Japanese watchmaking to another level,…

Boeing appears to be making a longer-term low. The company has been hounded by bad news, falling since 2019 and giving back 78.6% of its ten-year 2009-2019 bull market. Relative strength bottomed in mid-November. A six-month relative strength base, the minimum that we would expect before a sustained rise, is now in place. There are higher momentum lows both weekly and monthly. In terms of monthly price, a downtrend line from the 2009 high has been snapped, suggesting a sustained rally that will carry through to $230 short-term and $270 longer-term. Chart 1: Boeing Daily, Weekly, Monthly Chart 2: Boeing…

Tariffs, inflation, and wary consumers have deflated the U.S. home furnishings business, but IKEA sees an opportunity to outflank the competition. Everyone knows what business IKEA is in, right? Furniture—sofas, chairs, and beds. So it must compete with Ashley Furniture and Wayfair, the online furniture retailer. But IKEA also sells bedding, rugs, and kitchenware. So TJX (HomeGoods and Marshalls), Target, and Williams Sonoma? What about the Swedish company’s popular kitchen cabinets and appliances? Home Depot and Lowe’s? Trying to pigeonhole IKEA in a defined retail category in order to compare it to competitors is a slippery business. That should make…

Key News Asian equities were mixed but mostly lower overnight after substantial gains from the 90-day US-China tariff deal, as India and Pakistan outperformed, while Thailand and Hong Kong underperformed. The South China Morning Post reported that US-bound shipping orders increased nearly 300% after the 90-day pause was announced, reflecting still-strong demand from US businesses and consumers for China-made goods despite tensions. Airplane makers in Mainland China were sold off on the potential for a resurgence of purchases of US-made Boeing airplanes as a condition of a deal between China and the US. CNY has been highly resilient amid “Art…

The UK trade deal was apparently the tasty egg roll before the main course of lower Chinese tariffs. A delightful order for this dividend grower, ready to feast on the “Peking duck” of trade agreements. China is one of the biggest buyers of US crops, importing tens of billions of dollars of American agriculture every year. Soybeans and corn meander from Midwest farms all the way across the Pacific to feed China’s large (and growing) livestock industry. Higher US-China tariffs have weighed on US farmers’ profitability—and in turn, on business for key ag suppliers like Corteva Agriscience (CTVA). So the…

What if I told you, the most underappreciated alpha generator on public markets isn’t corporate breakouts, artificial intelligence, biotech, or cryptocurrency?While everyone else chases the latest buzzword, true value can occasionally be found in the quietest corners of the market. And few corners are less routinely mispriced or quieter than spinoffs. On social media, spinoffs do not follow any trends. They barely make the news, in contrast to IT IPOs. More importantly, though, they generate dislocations, expose latent options, and provide patient investors an advantage before the rest of the market catches on. In a world fixed on stories, spinoffs…

Tencent Earnings Review Tencent (700 HK) reported Q1 financial results after the Hong Kong close today that beat analyst expectations on the big three: revenue, adjusted net income, and adjusted EPS. Unfortunately, due to a flight, I wasn’t able to catch the earnings call. Looks like a solid beat! Party on, Garth! Party on, Wayne! Revenue increased by +13% to RMB 180 billion ($25.1 billion) from RMB 159.5 billion versus expectations of RMB 175.6 billion. Revenues from Value Added Services increased by 17% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 92.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Domestic Games revenues were RMB…

With an ever-growing list of similar-sounding mutual funds to choose from, finding the best is an increasingly difficult task. How can investors change the game to shift the odds in their favor? Don’t Trust Mutual Fund Labels There are at least 167 different Real Estate mutual funds and at least 648 mutual funds across eleven sectors. Do investors need 58+ choices on average per sector? How different can the mutual funds be? Those 167 Real Estate mutual funds are very different from each other. With anywhere from 24 to 158 holdings, many of these Real Estate mutual funds have drastically…

Are we careening towards a recession, or is a pickup in inflation the big threat to the stock market? The negative first quarter GDP print has recession fears in the financial headlines. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jay Powell remains fixated on inflation. Ironically, both may come to pass. Which means we must prepare our portfolios for a slowdown that is quickly followed by a pickup in prices. Let’s put one smart lender on our “Goldilocks” watch list. This ticker yields 10% today (with some nice “dividend insurance” we’ll talk about in a moment). But the key point is that it profits…

The first part of May has been a particularly terrible period for short sellers, who lost $69.4 billion through May 9, according to data from Ortex. However, short sellers are having an outstanding year overall, gaining $63.1 billion year to date through May 9. March was a particularly good month, with short sellers gaining $86 billion, although they were down $14.7 billion for January. Now with more than half the year left, some short sellers are anticipating a good year for the practice, while others remain a bit tentative on the topic. Nonetheless, at least two notable short sellers are…